Communications
Craig Huber downgrades NFLX to Underweight following its $82.7bn agreement to acquire Warner Bros Discovery’s studios, HBO and HBO Max streaming assets - a major strategic shift he views as unnecessarily risky. He argues the deal brings significant regulatory hurdles, adds heavy leverage and could slow NFLX’s organic revenue growth while pressuring margins. Large US media acquisitions rarely succeed and NFLX had excelled for 15+ years without pursuing major M&A. With the deal likely taking 12-18 months to close, Craig expects a prolonged stock overhang. Re. Paramount’s hostile bid, he believes PSKY would need to raise its offer to $32/share to fully entice shareholders away from NFLX’s attractive proposal.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Communications
Joe Cornell offers a detailed analysis of WBD’s planned spin-off of its Streaming & Studios segments. The move mirrors a broader media trend to separate faster-growing streaming assets from legacy cable operations. The split enhances strategic flexibility - Streaming & Studios could become a more attractive M&A target, while Linear Networks might be paired with a similar business. Joe’s SOTP valuation yields a consolidated target price of $15.00 per share (adjusting for a ~20.0% stake in the Streaming & Studios businesses) for WBD, which implies a potential upside of ~30% from the current market price.
Edition: 215
- 11 July, 2025
Special Sits Idea Forum
While all the stocks presented at MYST's latest buyside event could be considered undervalued, many offered significant (i.e. >50%) upside. The most differentiated ideas included: Blackbaud (improving fundamentals more apparent post-EVERFI divestiture; potential M&A target); HealthEquity (new legislation fuelling dramatic TAM expansion + bond portfolio repricing tailwinds); and JBS (multiple to expand as US listing drives increased passive ownership / index inclusion). More familiar names discussed included: Fluor (huge NuScale Power (SMR) monetisation catalyst not reflected in Street estimates); Teva Pharmaceutical (generics cash cow enabling innovative branded portfolio pipeline development); and Warner Bros. Discovery (well positioned for media consolidation wave amid forthcoming business separation).
Edition: 214
- 27 June, 2025
Communications
Arete sees a $4.5-5bn EBITDA improvement from streaming by the end of the decade and thinks that the expected loss of the NBA means that '26E will likely mark the low-point of group EBITDA (at ~$9.4bn), before international streaming growth is sufficient to offset linear declines. The market is clearly not expecting any stabilisation right now, with the stock implied at <3x P/FCF in '25E. Leverage should hit management's 2.5-3 turn target range in '25E and WBD would then be able to buy back stock very accretively. This scenario creates a significant potential upside case, with Arete’s revised TP of $24 implying the shares could more than triple, and yet still trade only at ~10x trough P/FCF.
Edition: 189
- 28 June, 2024
Communications
DTC subscriber growth has stalled in the face of price increases, marketing cuts and future content reductions, while the company’s cost allocation accounting means streaming losses in FY22 ($3.4bn) were understated relative to the accounting policies of Warner Bros Discovery / Comcast to the tune of $2.5bn, giving an indication of the challenges. Despite assuming a DIS / Hulu merger, Arete expects DTC to generate one-third less EBITDA long-term than they previously modelled and have lowered their TP from $94 to $65 (25% downside).
Edition: 165
- 21 July, 2023
Communications
The heavy lifting on restructuring is now largely complete (Paramount and Disney are just starting theirs) with expenses down $2.8bn and cash content spending running at ~$4bn/qtr. Studios look likely to recover from 2H23, advertising looks to have bottomed, and the new Max streaming platform has a good mix of content that should be attractive to all viewers meaning top and bottom line should show amelioration from here. Arete forecasts EBITDA of $11.2bn in 2023 and FCF of $4.4bn. For 2024, they expect a further improvement in EBITDA to $13.1bn and FCF to jump to $5.9bn (net debt declines to $36.1bn (2.8x) allowing a buyback to start late in the year). TP $31 (130% upside).
Edition: 162
- 09 June, 2023