Online travel & AI

Consumer Discretionary

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

Robert Mollins examines how OTAs are adapting to a rapidly changing environment driven by rising AI adoption. He focuses on 4 key themes: 1) AI as an emerging traffic channel; 2) structural advantages limiting disintermediation risk; 3) consumer-facing AI development across travel platforms; and 4) internal AI initiatives driving monetisation and cost-saving opportunities. AI companies have rapidly integrated tools into their assistants, raising concern over the technology’s ability to replicate functionality and reduce dependency on established platforms. Investor concern has extended beyond software into sectors with significant digital exposure, including online travel. While Robert acknowledges these risks, he believes AI assistants are more likely to evolve into a paid traffic channel rather than a vertically integrated travel marketplace capable of displacing Booking, Expedia and Airbnb.

- 06 March, 2026

Expedia (EXPE)

Consumer Discretionary

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

GHRA reiterates their Buy-rating following EXPE’s 20%+ post-earnings rally, as they believe management's efforts to improve the business will continue to pay dividends over coming quarters in the form of upward revision and in turn value creation. Q3 saw upside across key metrics (nights, GBV, EBITDA, EPS) while EXPE also issued Q4 guidance well ahead of consensus (GHRA increased their Q4 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $754m and $3.29, respectively). With EXPE trading well below Airbnb and Booking, they see a low-risk, high-reward setup, supported by a CEO that understands the task at hand (improving traffic & conversion), a growing B2B business, improving marketing efficiencies and sizeable buybacks. TP $320 (10x 2027E EBITDA).

- 14 November, 2025

Airbnb (ABNB)

Consumer Discretionary

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

AirDNA data points to nights pacing in line with consensus estimates, but Robert Mollins thinks the forecast will be downwardly revised once Dec is in the books. Comps will be more challenging this month than in the first two months of Q4 and with AirDNA's forecast methodology assuming QTD Y/Y performance holds for the entire quarter, Robert is comfortable with his room night estimate (107.7m) sitting below AirDNA's forecast (109m). He reiterates his Underperform rating (TP $108); sees risk greater than reward with ABNB trading at a material premium to peers and uncertainty around margins heading into '25E with planned investments from 2H24 expected to persist into next year.

- 13 December, 2024

Airbnb (ABNB)

Consumer Discretionary

Cmind

Cmind predicts that ABNB is very likely to beat its 3Q23 earnings, scheduled to release on 1st Nov. Per their latest prediction, the probability of beating the consensus is 0.91. ABNB exceeds its competitors in high Cash/Operating Profit, EBT/Sales, Gross Profit/Total Assets, Gross Margin change, and Current Assets/Capitalised Expenses; and in low Inventories/Current Assets. In linguistic analysis, ABNB's CEO/CFO have been more positive and bullish on the company’s outlook and less evasive in addressing analysts’ questions.

- 27 October, 2023

Airbnb (ABNB)

Communications

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

Double Upgrade (to Buy) - GHRA’s digital engagement data indicates trends have materially improved since ABNB last updated markets in mid-May, which when combined with still-elevated ADRs and lengthening stays suggest there is ample 2Q topline upside and EBITDA flowthrough relative to current estimates. ABNB warrants a valuation premium vs. peers given its (1) best-in-class brand recognition (2) faster recovery relative to traditional OTAs, (3) upward revision momentum ahead and (4) continued product improvement.

- 23 July, 2021

SPAC Idea Forum highlights several interesting opportunities

MYST Advisors

Despite the recent carnage in the sector, judging by the turnout at MYST’s latest Forum, interest in SPACs has not waned at all. While there was some lively bull vs. bear debates (PureCycle Technologies, Jaws Acquisition Corp, Dragoneer Growth Opportunities Corp), MYST felt the most compelling ideas included Gores Metropoulos II - less expensive and more vertically-integrated Airbnb with experienced sponsor. Mudrick Capital Acquisition Corporation II - leader in the "red hot" collectibles market; new licensing deals and NFT optionality to accelerate growth/GMV.

- 28 May, 2021