Allegro (ALE PW) Poland
Consumer Discretionary
the IDEA! remains constructive on the stock following FY25 results, highlighting strong ecosystem monetisation, robust cash generation and disciplined capital returns as key pillars of the investment case. The Polish marketplace continues to fund international expansion while sustaining attractive incremental margins, with ~63% drop-through. Management reiterated its leverage framework centred around ~1x net debt/EBITDA and announced a further PLN 1.6bn FY26 buyback, which the IDEA! sees as offering downside support. However, they caution that management may be underestimating the competitive trajectory of Chinese cross-border platforms such as Temu and Shein. While EU parcel duties from July could slow growth, the competitive threat is unlikely to disappear and could pressure domestic GMV growth over time.
Edition: 232
- 20 March, 2026
Technology
Vision sees risks for Allegro.eu (ALE.WA) shares due to rising competition. Despite slightly better-than-expected GMV and take rate growth, management's comments confirmed intensified competition, particularly from Temu, which is rapidly expanding in Poland. Allegro increased marketing spend to counter this, impacting future margins. 1Q24 revenue increased 6.6% YoY and adjusted EBITDA beat expectations at PLN 706mn, but net income missed at PLN 242mn. Vision believes increased competition from Temu, Amazon, and AliExpress, alongside rising delivery expenses, will pressure Allegro's profitability.
Edition: 188
- 14 June, 2024
European & US short ideas
Since Vision pitched their short thesis on Vidrala, Verallia and O-I Glass at our Equity Shorting Conference in mid-Mar the stocks have underperformed the Stoxx600 by ~8%. In the last couple of months they have also initiated 3 new European shorts, 3 new US shorts, and has readied a new $7bn+ European short (trades ~$20m/day and has short interest of <1%) for initiation next week. Please join Vision for a meeting while members of their team are in Paris (Jun 5th-6th), Zurich (Jun 7th) and London (Jun 8th-12th).
In the last 24 months, Vision has closed several shorts including: Allegro, AutoStore, Boohoo, Burlington, Colruyt, De'Longhi, Electrolux, Gerresheimer, H&M, Hargreaves Lansdown, Inditex, New Relic, Nokian Tyres, Peloton, Similarweb, Thule, Trex, TSMC, UiPath and Whirlpool.
Edition: 161
- 26 May, 2023
A new $3bn+ M/Cap European industrial short
Industrials
Trades >$10m/day and has <1% short interest - will be lapping price increases at a time when volumes have turned negative and there are substitution threats and declining per capita usage of products at some of its largest customers. It trades >10x EV/EBITDA on 2023 estimates that call for 40% growth in EBITDA.
In the last 24 months, Vision has closed several shorts including: Allegro, Boohoo, Colruyt, H&M, Inditex, New Relic, Nokian Tyres, Peloton, Similarweb, Thule, Trex, TSMC and UiPath.
Edition: 154
- 17 February, 2023
3 new Consumer short ideas
Vision has issued 3 new consumer shorts in the past 3 weeks, 2 being European and 1 US. The most recent European short has a market cap >$3bn, trades >$25m/day and SI% <10%. The company has experienced market share losses and is seeing new entrants from Asia, potentially over-earned during the pandemic, has bullish estimates, and channel inventories that look bloated. European short ideas Vision has closed over recent months include Allegro (55% alpha), Colruyt (40%), Thule Group (>30%) and Nokian Tyres (>20%).
Edition: 142
- 19 August, 2022
Exciting new $5bn+ Industrial Short
Industrials
Trades more than $30m/day and has short interest below 5% - over-earned in 2021, faces increasing competition and bullish estimates, and its inventory accounting method may have unsustainably boosted margins.
Vision Research aims to find liquid, non-consensus, fundamental US & European shorts, generating ~25 new ideas p.a. The shorts initiated by Vision during 2021 have fallen an average of 9%, with average alpha of 16%. Stocks that fell more than 25% included Peloton, UiPath, Allegro, Boohoo, Traeger, Children’s Place, SimilarWeb and Vital Farms.
Edition: 128
- 04 February, 2022
Consumer Discretionary
Another timely short from Robert Prather - dismal earnings has seen $10bn+ wiped from PTON's market cap. Having initiated coverage mid Sep’21 at $112 (58-page report available on request), the shares are now languishing just above $50. PTON is the latest in several successful short calls from Vision Research. In fact, of the 23 ideas they have initiated on in the past 12 months, 20 have generated positive alpha (in a rising market), including UiPath, Vital Farms, Boohoo and Allegro (share price has fallen 40%+ from recent highs).
Edition: 123
- 12 November, 2021
Allegro (ALE PW) Poland
Technology
At the IRF Short Ideas conference in June, Vision explained its thesis, including increased competition (Amazon and others), high household penetration, and rising cost pressures. Amazon recently announced the rollout of Prime in Poland and Shopee has announced its entrance. Since the conference shares are down ~14% while the Stoxx600 is up ~1%.
Edition: 121
- 15 October, 2021