Industrials
Robert Crimes maintains a Sell rating on ALX, citing limited upside vs. broader infrastructure peers and mixed asset quality. While ALX’s stake in APRR delivers robust FCF and steady distribution growth, its minority position and concession expiry in 2035 limit long-term value. The Chicago Skyway deal offers modest value, but DG is deeply value-destructive, with equity estimated 70% below ALX’s 2017 purchase price. ALX's infrastructure distributions are set to rise to A$920m by 2030E but collapse to A$250m in 2037E. Robert expects IFM to increase its stake, but it has had a negative impact on the share price to date and cut daily trading liquidity in half. He continues to prefer Ferrovial (+100% upside) and Getlink (+85%) in Global Toll Roads.
Edition: 212
- 30 May, 2025
Industrials
Aims to raise ~US$2bn to fund the purchase of its majority interest in Chicago Skyway - ALX’s largest shareholder, IFM (who recently increased their stake to 19.99%) has already publicly stated its opposition for the deal, nonetheless the company has chosen to go ahead with the acquisition. The performance of the shares are likely to be driven more by what IFM does next rather than the company’s fundamentals. The deal scores a negative score on Aequitas’ ECM framework owing to its large size and not being accretive to earnings in the near term - this is one to avoid for new shareholders even at the entitlement offer price.
Edition: 144
- 16 September, 2022