Proven stock-picking outperformance
AIR’s Top 10 Best Ideas strategies continue to demonstrate exceptional consistency and alpha generation. Since inception in 2012, their European Large Cap Top 10 has delivered +526% performance vs. +142% for the STOXX Europe 600, with AIR beating the benchmark 85% of the time over 14 years. In 2025, their Large Cap portfolio gained +31%, outperforming the index by +14.4%, driven by standout performers Heidelberg Materials (+87%) and BAE Systems (+49%), with Vonovia the only negative contributor. AIR’s Mid Cap Top 10 was equally compelling, returning +36.9%, beating the STOXX Europe Mid 200 by +20.5%, with key contributions from Saab (+130%), Hensoldt (+113%) and ACS (+75%).
Edition: 227
- 09 January, 2026
Compass (CPG LN) & BAE Systems (BA/ LN)
Consumer Discretionary / Industrials
Willis Welby looks at UK growth names (>$2.5bn M/Cap) that have not shared in the share price rises since Oct 26th. CPG has seen analyst downgrades despite a robust update during Nov, but looks like a very strong compounding story that is not expensive and makes great sense at current prices. However, it is BAE that really stands out. The defence contractor has seen upgrades to consensus Y2 EBIT over the last three months and more recently has announced more good news on orders. Relative to US peers that implied to Y3 EBITM ratio of <60 looks way too low. Other stocks discussed in their report include AstraZeneca and Games Workshop.
Edition: 176
- 22 December, 2023
Jet2 (JET2 LN) & BAE Systems (BA LN) UK
Consumer Discretionary & Industrials
Both these stocks look seriously cheap and both have seen upgrades over recent results. Jet2 comes with very strong finances and a lot of market share growth. Of course, travel can be cyclical and lots of the cash is not really theirs, but Willis Welby’s adjusted implied to Y3 EBITM ratio is just 25, which is really low. BAE’s share price responded well before giving part of the gains up on the announcement of the Ball acquisition. Willis Welby considers BAE to be a first-rate international defence company and the expectations ratio of 57 is at a major discount to its largely US peers.
Edition: 168
- 01 September, 2023
European Defence: Paradigm shift
€180bn bare minimum required to re-equip European armies to a standard necessary to provide credible deterrence against Russia - Agency Partners’ 31-page report explores this ‘rearmament crisis’ and which companies are best placed to benefit. Despite recent share price rises throughout the sector they still see a lot of valuation upside in European large caps. Preferred stocks include BAE Systems, Leonardo, Lockheed Martin and Rheinmetall. While European mid caps have fuller valuations, they offer much faster gearing to increased defence spending from short cycle businesses. Top picks include Saab and Babcock.
Edition: 131
- 18 March, 2022