Strong 2025 short performance, consistent long-term hit rate

Healthcare

Bios Research

Bios Research has published 7 short ideas this year, with 5 generating absolute returns. This builds on a strong trailing 12-month run with 13 of 18 short calls delivering positive returns. Positions closed in recent months include Bio-Techne (-22%) and Butterfly Network (-43%), Repligen (-26%) and Twist Bioscience (-25%). Since inception in 2012, Bios has published 183 short ideas with a 69% hit rate and 42% producing >25% returns. Focus areas include medtech, commercial biotech, services/tools and potential frauds. Bios currently has 13 active short positions and will soon launch a new $10bn+ biotech short which Aaron Fletcher believes has up to 80% downside before the end of 2025.

- 25 July, 2025

Where Street earnings are too high & who should miss

New Constructs

Wall Street analysts are too bullish on Q3 expectations for most S&P 500 companies. Although down from record highs set in early 2021, the percentage of companies whose Street EPS exceeds New Constructs’ Core EPS remains high at 71%. Furthermore, 208 companies (>40%) overstate Core Earnings by >10% (Street Earnings are overstated by 24% on average in TTM through 2Q23). New Constructs highlights Bio-Techne as one of the companies most likely to miss Wall Street analysts’ expectations in Q3. Others include Principal Financial Group, T-Mobile, Tesla and Xcel Energy.

- 13 October, 2023