Consumer Discretionary
Brian McGough thinks the market is materially overestimating the company’s long-term earnings power. Investors are buying into BOOT’s ambition to expand from ~515 stores to 1,200, but Hedgeye’s M.A.P.S. (Market Area Performance Study) analysis suggests the company has already exhausted its most profitable “power alley” stores tied to mining, agriculture and construction - locations with a healthy 70/30 workwear-to-fashion mix. Incremental growth is now shifting to more expensive, fashion-heavy stores that rely on a Western Wear trend that Brian believes is in the late innings. In aggregate, he estimates BOOT needs ~7% comps just to leverage occupancy (the highest hurdle in retail), while many new stores carry rent escalators exceeding 10%. Brian sees sustainable EPS closer to ~$4 vs. consensus TAIL expectations >$8, implying up to ~75% downside.
Edition: 229
- 06 February, 2026
Consumer Discretionary
New CEO Jim Conroy added to Paragon’s research pipeline - Conroy joins ROST from Boot Barn, where he created 640% alpha as CEO since 2012. However, his ManagementTrack Rating of 5.7 is a modest downgrade vs. the outgoing CEO Rentler's MTR of 7.0. Other stats include: Conroy is a "Builder" capital allocator: 70% of career capital allocated towards CapEx (Rentler is a "Capital Returner", allocating 69%+ towards Dividends & Buybacks). Conroy is an "Inconsistent Guidance Forecaster": Beats 49% & Misses 39% of the time (Rentler is a "Guidance Sandbagger": Beats 87% & Misses 7%). He has a low F.L.A.G. Risk Concern and very low historical Earnings Call Q&A Evasiveness (Conroy averaged 10% vs. Rentler's 27% over the last 5 years).
Edition: 198
- 01 November, 2024
Consumer Discretionary
Where BOOT's latest results diverged from John Zolidis’ expectations, was in the Mar quarter outlook, which was worse than expected. Despite the cut to forecasts, he is still more than $1 below the Street in EPS for the Mar 2025 fiscal year. There is also little (or no) sign of any turn in the business. Comps are deeply negative. And the company continues to try to offset the decline in demand by accelerating unit growth, shifting more of the assortment to private brands and by reducing staffing in stores. Absent a change in top-line, John continues to see risk of much lower earnings and a further negative re-rating of the shares.
Edition: 179
- 09 February, 2024
Boot Barn (BOOT), Bath & Body Works (BBWI)
Consumer Discretionary
In their weekly report A Line uses a proprietary ranking system to build individual company performance history. Companies are graded A-C based on factors including product design, promotional activity and store feedback. Biggest movers last week:
BOOT - Grade B: scores 18/30, +3pts vs. previous week. Surprisingly strong Black Friday weekend and then managed to avoid the typical post-holiday lull. Seeing a lot of success with the relatively new men’s private label brand (Brother’s & Sons).
BBWI - Grade B: scores 15/30, -3pts. Missed sales over Black Friday weekend and Candle Day. The stores have been refusing shipments because they didn’t sell enough and cannot fit anything else on the floors.
Edition: 150
- 09 December, 2022