Retail predictions for the year ahead

Consumer

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

Looking back at GHRA’s 2025 Top 10 (+1) predictions, their batting average was good, hitting on 7 of 11 (see above). For the year ahead, their forecasts include: 1) Target announces an investment cycle on Mar 3rd with adjusted FY26 EBIT margin in the ~3.0%-4.0% range and a 2030 view of ~5.0%-6.0%. 2) Five Below launches Digital Loyalty Card. 3) Academy Sports adds another big brand…likely HOKA. 4) Costco unveils a special dividend and/or ramps share buybacks. 5) Ollie's embarks on large scale sales productivity effort. 6) Burlington takes a page (or two) out of the Ross Stores marketing playbook. 7) Someone gets acquired; BJ’s and Arhaus the most likely candidates. 8) Home improvement recovery gets pushed out…again.

- 09 January, 2026

Retail Cross Currents: 4 key themes & top stock ideas

Consumer

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

GHRA highlights an unusually volatile retail backdrop through late 2025 and early 2026, noting multiple “cross currents” affecting both consumers and retailers. Recent rating changes include downgrades for Dollar Tree (Reduce) and BJ's Wholesale Club (Hold), while upgrades cover Williams-Sonoma (Buy), Wayfair (Accumulate), Kohl's (Accumulate) and Dick's Sporting Goods (Hold). GHRA’s key investment themes emphasise: 1) stocks offering both EPS upside and multiple expansion (Five Below, Ross Stores, Burlington); 2) underappreciated turnaround stories (Kohl's, Dollar General); 3) selective “rate-trade” exposure favouring home furnishings over home improvement (Williams-Sonoma, Wayfair, Tractor Supply); and 4) secular winners / “Coffee Can” stocks (Walmart, Costco, TJX, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Casey's).

- 03 October, 2025

Do you worry about stocks at 50x earnings?

Trivariate Research

According to Trivariate's analysis, companies that reach 50x price-to-forward earnings for the first time in 3 years consistently see their multiples begin to contract on average back to 37x earnings 12 months after the initial “eclipse”. Although the data suggests that there is no need to panic sell, it does appear that beginning 6-to 9-months later, the odds of outperformance start to deteriorate. Unless earnings explode to the upside, Trivariate’s advice would be to trim these positions 6 months after the initial eclipse of 50x earnings occurs. Recent examples of companies joining the “50x” club include Costco, Carvana, Albermarle and Iron Mountain.

- 15 November, 2024

AI driven 10Q / 10K text analysis

280First

Since there are always reasons when companies change the wording in their financial filings, being alerted to these changes allows investors to realise potential risk factors and opportunities before they are reflected in the market, ideal for idea generation and portfolio monitoring. Recent alerts include: 1) Broadcom - considering a dividend cut? 2) Costco - worldwide renewal rate may be adversely impacted. 3) Eagle Materials - takeover target? Customer consolidation concerns; long term financing needs. 4) Haemonetics - material reduction in per unit pricing by its largest customers. 5) Intuit - rethinking the trajectory of service revenue?

- 26 July, 2024

Walmart (WMT)

Consumer Staples

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

Big 4Q23 beat driven by traffic & US GPM - FY24 guide looks conservative as the 2-year stacks need to implicitly decelerate from 1Q24's ~11.4% run-rate… a phenomenon that GHRA doesn’t think manifests as WMT's General Merchandise categories continue to mean revert. EPS of $7.30-7.50 looks plausible this year. From a capital allocation perspective, WMT returned to more aggressively repurchasing its stock which alongside the largest dividend increase since 2014 are all signs of a management team playing offense. The model's moat is becoming “Costco-like”, which reinforces GHRA’s positive stance. TP increases to $200 (25x FY25E EPS of $8.00).

- 23 February, 2024

Estee Lauder (EL)

Consumer Staples

Real Street Retail Research

North American sales trends are increasingly disconnected from the US Beauty market. As inventory mounts in TJX & Costco and once forbidden discounts ramp up on DTC sites and department stores, the prospect of a meaningful turnaround in the medium term is in question. Distribution expansion at Ulta Beauty, Ulta @ Target and Sephora @ Kohl's, has not slowed the share bleed and a new generation of prestige brands has traction in the market. The outlook for this once dominant portfolio of legacy brands in the US is murky at best as the critical Holiday '23 season approaches.

- 15 September, 2023

Costco (COST US) US

Consumer Staples

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

Building off a strong February Week 4 when COST began to cycle significantly stronger comps from a year ago, the company saw an acceleration in trends during the month of March - posting a hugely impressive 11.1% core comp. According to GHRA, it is becoming increasingly clear that COST will “stomp the comp” in the coming months. Other companies well positioned to do the same include Dollar General, Target and Lowe's.

- 16 April, 2021