ENAV (ENAV IM) Italy

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

ENAV offers investors unique exposure to European ANSP infrastructure, while regulatory protection against most traffic shortfall and all inflation, provides highly defensive and visible FCF. Updating his long term model forecasts, Robert Crimes sees en-route service unit traffic growth +2.7% CAGR to 2040E; FCF pre-dividends averaging c.€190m p.a. in 2024-40E; and continued DPS growth at +5.8% CAGR in 2023-30E. Robert raises his EBITDA forecasts on higher traffic plus higher tariffs after the EC’s published Efficiency Target for RP4 was -1.2% (-c.50bps below Insight’s previous estimate). His DDM based TP increases to €6.6 (65% upside).

- 20 September, 2024