Guidance warning season

AIR Capital

Despite rising geopolitical risk, European corporate guidance has yet to reflect the potential economic impact. In AIR’s recent management meetings, discussion focused almost entirely on AI, with little attention paid to the Iran conflict despite surging energy prices and supply-chain stress that historically drive earnings revisions. The combination of unpriced macro risk and AI-driven sectoral disruption creates a credible basis for expecting a meaningful wave of 2026 earnings guidance revisions across European equities in the coming weeks. And the performance gap between the companies on the right side of these structural shifts and those on the wrong side will broaden. Stock winners include AI infrastructure beneficiaries such as Arm, Elmos, Aixtron and STM, alongside defence exposure at Exosens and Indra Sistemas. Euronext and Auto1 are also seen as largely insulated. Under pressure are Stroeer, Freenet and SES. In IT services, the sector is splitting between “The Conquerors” (Accenture, Cognizant, Reply) and “The Endangered” (Capgemini, Atos, Sage, Dassault Systemes, SAP).

- 20 March, 2026

Portugal: Breakout for the Lisbon PSI

Grey Investment

Chris Roberts reports that the Euronext Lisbon PSI (7,768) exceeded the 7,860-7,900 target range, for the 12-month rectangle breakout, reaching 8,032 in August. The 32.4% gain from the April low is in line with other advancing phases since the 2020 low. Longer-term, major resistance extends from 13,000-15,000. Chris would be interested in buying into a double-digit percentage correction. Prior falls have varied from 12% to 18%. He is now 25% long from 6,536, having sold 25% at an average of 7,918 (see P.20). His stop stays at a daily close below 6,495.

- 05 September, 2025

Portugal: Europe’s Japan

Grey Investment

Following a 77.5% decline in 22 years, Portugal now has a positive equity story. The Euronext Lisbon PSI is on the verge of breaking out from a 17-month Ascending Triangle, following a shallow retracement of the 2020-22 bull market (chart 1). A weakly close above 6,560 would be viewed as a breakout, targeting 7,900, after which the Grey Investment team would likely recommend a BUY. Looking at chart 2, the secular bear market is over and the weekly chart breakout would take the index clear of key monthly resistance around 5,800. A long secular decline destroys an equity culture among local investors, but there will be plenty of young investors who will not have the bad memories that come with prolonged market losses.

- 10 November, 2023

Euronext (ENX FP) France

Financials

MYST Advisors

The stock is too cheap to ignore - ENX is the least expensive global exchange trading at ~9.4x EBITDA / ~11.5x EPS. Multi-year growth path with improving fundamentals. Well-positioned to “beat & raise” in a difficult environment. Buying back ~5% of ADV over the next 12 months. Upcoming clearing migrations to accelerate organic growth. Potential for highly accretive M&A within 2 years (i.e., Nasdaq Nordics, BME Spanish Exchange, Euroclear). Asymmetric risk:reward with ~35% upside to €90/share TP (~15x FY24 EPS of €6.00).

- 27 October, 2023