Online travel & AI

Consumer Discretionary

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

Robert Mollins examines how OTAs are adapting to a rapidly changing environment driven by rising AI adoption. He focuses on 4 key themes: 1) AI as an emerging traffic channel; 2) structural advantages limiting disintermediation risk; 3) consumer-facing AI development across travel platforms; and 4) internal AI initiatives driving monetisation and cost-saving opportunities. AI companies have rapidly integrated tools into their assistants, raising concern over the technology’s ability to replicate functionality and reduce dependency on established platforms. Investor concern has extended beyond software into sectors with significant digital exposure, including online travel. While Robert acknowledges these risks, he believes AI assistants are more likely to evolve into a paid traffic channel rather than a vertically integrated travel marketplace capable of displacing Booking, Expedia and Airbnb.

- 06 March, 2026

Expedia (EXPE)

Consumer Discretionary

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

GHRA reiterates their Buy-rating following EXPE’s 20%+ post-earnings rally, as they believe management's efforts to improve the business will continue to pay dividends over coming quarters in the form of upward revision and in turn value creation. Q3 saw upside across key metrics (nights, GBV, EBITDA, EPS) while EXPE also issued Q4 guidance well ahead of consensus (GHRA increased their Q4 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $754m and $3.29, respectively). With EXPE trading well below Airbnb and Booking, they see a low-risk, high-reward setup, supported by a CEO that understands the task at hand (improving traffic & conversion), a growing B2B business, improving marketing efficiencies and sizeable buybacks. TP $320 (10x 2027E EBITDA).

- 14 November, 2025

Expedia (EXPE)

Consumer Discretionary

Hedgeye

Once a top post-Covid long idea, EXPE has ceded leadership to peers and the broader travel industry. Hedgeye believes the bull thesis - centred on margin expansion, mix shift and market share stability - has grown stale and is now reversing. Investors are 1) underestimating the magnitude of near term deceleration in the core B2C platform, 2) underestimating EXPE’s exposure to regional demand issues and incremental competition, 3) overestimating EXPE’s ability to leverage marketing and drive higher margins, and 4) significantly overestimating EXPE’s ability to maintain (or even grow) share of the total accommodation market in the coming years. While the stock screens as cheap, the risk/reward still skews negative, especially compared to Booking, their preferred long in Online Travel. Hedgeye's EXPE target price offers ~30% downside.

- 11 July, 2025

Expedia (EXPE)

Communications

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

Robert Mollins upgrades the stock to Buy - key factors behind his bullish stance include: 1) Investor uncertainty surrounding the tech stack migration is overblown. 2) EXPE will more than offset a slowdown in vacation rentals through its traditional lodging offerings. 3) The upcoming launch of “One Key” will drive share gains in the US in the near-term and internationally over coming years. 4) EXPE's valuation discount is overdone with the company expected to see fundamentals that are relatively in line with online travel peers. Robert’s $130 TP equates to 6.5x his 2024E adjusted EBITDA.

- 26 May, 2023