EVENTS:   The Roaring 2020s or a Rerun of the 1970s? - Edward Yardeni/Yardeni Research - 24 Mar 26   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 13 - Thomas Chanos/Badger Consultants & Dr. Aaron Fletcher/Bios Research & Jonathan Telgener/Channel Dynamics & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & John Zolidis/Quo Vadis Capital & Mark Hiley/The Analyst - 26 Mar 26     ROADSHOWS: Chinese Equity Ideas & Channel Checks Across 50 sub-sectors - Don Ma /Horizon Insights   •   London   23 - 27 Mar 26       Long Short European Equity Research - Harry Grist /The Analyst   •   New York   26 Mar 26       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   27 - 27 Mar 26      
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First Republic Bank (FRC)

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Antya Investments

Effectively insolvent - Neeraj Monga does not believe that the so-called deposit lifeline changes the underlying economic reality of the bank. Interest expense will rise exponentially, while the liquidity problem is further compounded by an asset-liability mismatch of immense proportions. Moreover, 90% of the loan book of $148bn is dedicated to real estate, of which non-amortizing single-family loans are $51bn and multi-family loans are $11bn. Thus, 43% of FRC’s book of loans is to a sector under intense pressure with the Fed trying to control inflation. FRC is a living and currently breathing Murphy’s Law in action; anything that can go wrong will go wrong, and at the worst possible time.

Edition: 158

- 14 April, 2023