Helleniq Energy (ELPE GA) Greece
Energy
Unfortunately, ELPE does not have a naphtha reformer to take advantage of the huge naphtha-gasoline cracks ($35/bbl in Q2), nor a big enough RES mass (yet) to offset at least part of the weakness in refining. Unless refining margins stay close to $15/bbl beyond 2023, the company’s EBITDA will be going significantly down. With the shares looking expensive in EV/EBITDA terms (8.5x-9.5x 2024-2025E) and the dividend yield not big enough to justify current trading levels, ResearchGreece remains bearish. They now expect clean 2023/2024/2025 EBITDA at €1.03bn/€513m/€547m and see equity cash flow at €140m in 2023 and a negative €65m in 2024.
Edition: 169
- 15 September, 2023