Bear’s Den Idea Forum
While MYST’s generalist events typically offer a diverse set of ideas, they were shocked by the extremely high percentage (>70%) of Consumer-related Shorts (Cheesecake Factory, Dollarama, Ebay, Elf Beauty, Hertz, O'Reilly Automotive, Simply Good Foods, Utz Brands) presented last week! Other themes included companies facing funding issues (AST SpaceMobile, Hawaiian Electric Industries, HTZ) or exhibiting accounting red flags (CAKE, EBAY, UTZ) and stocks priced for perfection (CME Group, DOL CN, Loar Holdings, ORLY).
The ideas presented at MYST’s previous Bear’s Den Forum (Jun 24) dramatically outperformed over 1-month period (~71% hit rate, +7.4% average alpha).
Edition: 195
- 20 September, 2024
Consumer Discretionary
Trades at a ~5-turn multiple discount to Avis, with limited Sell-side coverage, and very attractive warrants ($13.80 strike price expiring 2051). This is a “classic bankruptcy re-listing” - strong new management team; B/S restructured with minimal debt; and renegotiated contracts on more favourable terms. Given the ongoing rental car shortage and robust industry backdrop, pricing will remain positive for at least another 18 months. HTZ’s recent order with Tesla for 100k EVs also gives it a first-mover advantage into electrification for rentals vs. peers. TP $35 (35% upside).
Edition: 125
- 10 December, 2021