Outside of AI, why invest in the US?

View from the Peak

US equities remain the world’s most important market, but passive benchmarks are distorted by AI concentration risk. Durable alpha lies in structural themes beyond AI. Power infrastructure (Constellation, Duke, NextEra) will benefit from grid bottlenecks as data centres drive demand. Re-industrialisation (Caterpillar, Honeywell, Rockwell) reflects reshoring and automation. The energy transition (Dominion, Enphase, ExxonMobil) requires trillions in capex. Housing scarcity (D.R. Horton, Home Depot, Lennar) is a structural imbalance. Healthcare innovation (Abbott, Eli Lilly, UnitedHealth) rides longevity and med-tech advances. Cybersecurity (Cisco, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto) is non-discretionary. Generational wealth transfer (BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Schwab) reshapes capital flows. The AI productivity super-cycle is real, but thematic allocations across these shifts offer broader, smarter US exposure.

- 19 September, 2025

Spin-Off Index up 15% YTD

Spin-Off Research

The sum of the parts is greater than the whole - for over 25 years, Spin-Off Research has been the preeminent independent research service for tracking and analysing the US spin-off space by covering all transactions over $250m from announcement through distribution date and one-year post-completion. You can access the latest edition of their monthly publication by clicking here. This includes coverage of WH Group and Smithfield Foods; Lennar’s REIT spin-off; Aptiv’s tax-free spin-off of its electrical distribution systems business; and Galapagos’ plans to spin off its innovative medicines business.

- 07 February, 2025

Lennar (LEN)

Consumer Discretionary

Housing Research Center

Alex Barron upgrades the stock to Buy and increases his EPS estimate for FY23 from $9.92 to $12.50 (vs. consensus at $10.02) following an impressive 2Q23 - beat on top and bottom line; efforts to improve its SG&A ratio seem to be paying off and guidance on orders / deliveries was better than expected. For FY24, Alex’s EPS estimate increases from $11.69 to $16.00 (vs. consensus at $10.83). Based on his 2023 adjusted tangible book value estimate, the P/B for LEN trades at 1.49x vs. 1.56x for the rest of the group. TP increases from $117 to $142.

- 23 June, 2023