High conviction Shorts

Revelare Partners

Revelare hosts over 40 idea events annually, sourcing 200+ original investment ideas from institutional investors. Shorts presented at a recent event included: 1) Docusign - described as a “melting ice cube” with overly bullish growth expectations for its Intelligent Agreement Management (IAM). 2) New York Times - viewed as a fully mature and fully exploited asset on a subscriber basis that likely peaked heading into the Trump vs. Harris election cycle. 3) MP Materials - a loss-making miner incorrectly perceived as a beneficiary of the trade wars, but which could actually be an existential threat for the company.

- 16 May, 2025

Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS)

Industrials

Two Rivers Analytics

AEIS features as one of the top short candidates in Two Rivers’ ‘Breaking Estimates Model’ - the power electronics industry faces increased competition, pressuring AEIS’ sales and margins. The company posted lower than expected results when it announced earnings last quarter and all four of its business segments have now seen a decline in revenue during both Q3 and Q4. Estimates have been sliding all year but have taken a sharper turn down this past month. Margins have been falling since 2017, yet are forecast to turn on a dime now and increase immediately to 17% adjusted EBITDA. The stock trades at historically high multiples of sales and earnings. Other short ideas include LGI Homes, MP Materials and Xometry.

- 08 March, 2024

Hunting For Alpha: Stocks that continue to offer significant downside

MYST Advisors

MYST hosted 25 formal events in 2023 generating 333 ideas (223 longs and 110 shorts). It was another impressive year with nearly 70% of their highlighted shorts producing positive alpha. Names that remain compelling include:

Aurora Innovation (AUR) - Entering a highly competitive market with an unproven product. TP $0 (100% downside).
Infosys (INFY) - Financials deteriorating amid structural growth slowdown. TP $12.50 (30% downside).
MP Materials (MP) - EV industry pivot away from rare earth materials to cause massive oversupply / pricing collapse. TP $10 (40% downside).
Veeva Systems (VEEV) - Back-end transition could be “worst tech decision since Osborne Computer Corp”. TP $115 (40% downside).

- 12 January, 2024