TikTok’s LatAm move has global reverberations
Blue Lotus argues that TikTok Shop (TTS)’s entry into Latin America is the largest e-commerce opportunity in developing countries for 2026. Video and live commerce penetration in LatAm remains <5% of GMV vs. 20-25% in SE Asia, despite larger GMV and strong TikTok engagement - creating a wide opening for disruption. TTS’s traffic advantage is expected to pressure incumbent margins, particularly MercadoLibre and Sea, while driving logistics upgrades. J&T Express emerges as a key beneficiary, with LatAm filling a growth gap as China and SE Asia slow. Blue Lotus also sees strategic upside for Kuaishou, partnership optionality for Grab and longer-term opportunities for Alibaba to reposition internationally.
Edition: 228
- 23 January, 2026
Mexican Banks: Selective value in smaller caps
Financials
Galliano's Financials Research
Aside from Trump’s tariff policies, Mexican banks are under pressure from the government to deliver on more competitive lending rates, with fintech challengers Nubank and MercadoLibre’s MercadoPago gaining traction. Despite these challenges, 1Q25 results were sound and the bank sector participated in the somewhat surprising Mexican bolsa rally in April. In this report, Victor Galliano applies his proprietary scorecard - which assesses valuations, balance sheet strength, returns and credit quality - that is then weighted across ten criteria to arrive at his investment picks; BanBajio, followed by BanRegio, rank as the top two. Inbursa is bottom ranked.
Edition: 211
- 16 May, 2025
Consumer Discretionary
EM Spreads continues to view MELI as an attractive emerging market credit story. For EM investors, they prefer MELI 2.375% 2026 notes. These bonds trade wide relative to the EM BBB and LatAm BBB Indices, offering a more favourable risk-return profile than MELI 3.125% 2031 notes. For US investors, MELI's risk-reward symmetry is particularly compelling. The 2031 bonds trade wide to the broader US Index, yielding 1.0 percentage points higher than comparable global e-commerce and fintech peers. EM Spreads believes MELI’s geographic diversification, strong liquidity, healthy credit metrics and positive outlook partially offset the risks linked to its LatAm exposure.
Edition: 200
- 29 November, 2024
Technology
The cheapest PayCo globally? The market remains hyper nervous on the Brazil Payment companies, but looking ahead to 2023 New Street thinks the ~8x 2023E PE multiple (with 2023-25E CAGR of ~40%) is too hard to ignore. Having sat on the side lines for most of last year they move to Buy with a TP of $17.00 (100% upside), taking a view that we are near enough at the end of the earnings downgrade cycle and assuming no significant change in the SELIC outlook. Their preferred LT pick exposed to this space remains MercadoLibre.
Edition: 151
- 06 January, 2023
Technology
Still needs a whole lot of hope to justify valuation - Sumeet Singh runs the rule over India’s biggest IPO which is backed by the likes of Alibaba, Softbank and Berkshire Hathaway. Paytm looks very expensive when compared to some of the superapps (SEA / MercadoLibre), which have all grown much faster. The declining take rate in its payment services segment is also a concern, while a drop in marketing and promotion costs could impact customer acquisition and growth. Paytm will have to keep a very tight lid on expenses to make a profit even in FY24. One to avoid.
Edition: 123
- 12 November, 2021