US Healthcare + Merger / Arb Catalysts: What’s next from DC
Healthcare
2026 is shaping up to be an active year for US healthcare policy, with President Trump's focus on affordability impacting Congressional and Administration priorities. Near term, Congress is considering spending legislation impacting clinical labs (Quest Diagnostics, Labcorp), diagnostics (Natera) and life science tools (Danaher, Thermo Fisher). Investors are also awaiting clarity on MFN deals and their impact on companies that have not yet signed agreements with the Administration. Beyond HC, Aldis also leverages their connectivity to provide timely insights and updates around M&A with regulatory catalysts, including Nexstar-Tegna and Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern. Contact us below for further information on events hosted by Aldis and access to their content library.
Edition: 228
- 23 January, 2026
Liquidity Risk Model: Best short candidates
ChargePoint (CHPT) - Burns $400m annually, a figure which is rising fast. Expected to run through most of its cash balance by early to mid-2024. Forecasts expect sales to continue slowing. Not expected to breakeven until 2026.
Floor & Decor (FND) - Requires nearly immediate outside financing, primarily due to very high capex spending. Net debt $1.8bn (vs. $200m in 2018). Sales are expected to slow further during 2023.
Natera (NTRA) - Diagnostics company will run out of cash by Sep having burned $700m+ in the past year. Not expected to breakeven until at least 2028. Trades at 5x 2023 and 2024 sales.
Edition: 155
- 03 March, 2023
Healthcare
New short thesis on this $10.8bn Mkt/Cap firm in the Diagnostics & Research industry - key points include: (1) Increased frequency of complaints about its billing practices. (2) Insurance providers have been reluctant to reimburse for microdeletion screening. (3) Disparate trends between receivables and deferred revenue signal deteriorating revenue quality. (4) NTRA may have pushed current-period expenses into the future. (5) Executives and directors have engaged in some unusual divestiture activity in recent periods. (6) Valuation metrics leave room for further downside.
Edition: 122
- 29 October, 2021