Accounting red flags surface in latest filings

Forensic Alpha

At Nexans, supplier financing increased, with payables under third-party bank arrangements rising from €341m at FY24 to €449m at FY25. Receivables securitisation and factoring programmes also grew, from €181m to €201m over the same period. Nordex saw contract assets rise from 37 to 48 days equivalent, offset by a matching surge in trade payables that neutralised cash flow impact. Accor disclosed a notable jump in long-term loans to Orient-Express entities following deconsolidation, while Airbus recorded an increase in receivables past due (from 25% of total receivables to 31%) and a release of provisions amounting to a total of €634m, a large amount of which was via “other risks and charges”.

- 06 March, 2026

Nexans (NEX FP) France

Industrials

Entext

Sean Maher adds NEX his green grid infrastructure basket (includes Rolls-Royce, Cummins, Ming Yang) after unjustified YTD weakness on a 14x PER, a 3-point discount to Italian rival Prysmian. Sean highlights NEX’s recent agreement with TenneT (largest in its history) and successful testing of the first 525 kV DC cable which enables a substantial increase in transmission capacity. Furthermore, as digital decoupling from China extends to subsea data infrastructure, what was already a very strong growth market driven by international data volumes in providing highly sophisticated multi-layer cables now has a further tailwind from national security led duplication and redundancy.

- 23 June, 2023

Nexans (NEX FP) France

Industrials

US potential and pivot to electrification pure play offers 45%+ upside - Sustainable Investing are more bullish on US transmission & distribution (T&D) growth than consensus (sees the market doubling to $600bn in a decade - 2x size of EU). NEX's leverage to US is underappreciated - it is currently only 22% of revenue, but will be closer to 40% by 2025, driving a 33% increase in group EBIT. The group's pivot to electrification pure play via the disposal of telco and industrial cable and the HVDC acquisition also drives margin improvement. 30% valuation discount to peers; NEX should be worth 9x EV/EBITDA, in line with Prysmian.

- 21 January, 2022

EU Net Zero Ideas: Cable offers long term FCF & returns, Electrolysers do not

HVDC players (Nexans, Prysmian and NKT) offer improved growth, margins and ROIC as interconnection becomes a key enabling technology for net zero. The US market could triple. Barriers to entry are high and incumbents are well placed to be the main beneficiaries.

Electrolyser producers (Nel and ITM Power) face increasingly competitive industry dynamics (similar to German solar in 2008) and overcapacity / pricing pressure through 2030. Current leaders are unlikely to generate cash in the coming decade or remain independent. Both could raise capital again.

- 29 October, 2021

Nexans (NEX FP) France

Industrials

AIR Capital

U-turn from generalist to ultra-focused cables producer specialised in electrification of wind and solar grids - with a leading market position and rapidly growing pipeline AIR expect the company's margins to increase significantly over the next few years. Proceeds from the planned disposal of its Telecom & Industry units can also be used to finance strategic acquisitions. Forecasts EBITDA of €450m in 2021 and €525m in 2022. TP increased to €120 (70% upside).

- 14 May, 2021