Payment Companies: 1H26 high conviction ideas

Technology

Galliano's Financials Research

Nexi is Victor Galliano’s top pick - it screens as one of the cheapest global payments names on market cap to revenue and market cap to TPV, with expanding EBITDA margins, rising take rate and improving cash opex discipline, all supported by increasing digital-payments penetration in Italy. PagSeguro remains his core LatAm Buy, despite strong YTD performance, valuations are still compelling and it ranks highly on Victor’s proprietary scorecard (see above), with a high net take rate relative to market cap to TPV. Affirm is the key Sell: Klarna’s IPO erodes scarcity value; valuation looks stretched on market cap to TPV and credit quality in its interest-bearing receivables is worsening. Klarna is one to watch - cheaper post-IPO, but BNPL competition and credit risks keep Victor on the sidelines pending a clear catalyst.

- 12 December, 2025

Affirm (AFRM)

Technology

Galliano's Financials Research

Victor Galliano sees the disparity in valuation between AFRM and Klarna as more of a downside risk for AFRM than an upside opportunity for KLAR; the intense competition in the BNPL marketplace is a potential “banana skin” for its premium growth expectations and he believes that AFRM should lose some of its “scarcity value” as a near pure play on BNPL in view of KLAR’s listing. With regards to Victor’s recommendations on payments companies in general, he maintains Buy ratings on PagSeguro, Nexi and PayPal for their value credentials primarily and upgrades KakaoPay from Sell to Neutral, following its marked de-rating.

- 19 September, 2025

Ranking the winners and losers in Global Payments

Technology

Galliano's Financials Research

Victor Galliano introduces a proprietary payments scorecard, ranking companies based on weighted metrics including valuation, margins, EBITDA growth and valuation-to-growth. PagSeguro and Nexi remain top picks due to deep value characteristics and strong scorecard rankings. PayPal is upgraded to Buy, replacing Visa, supported by improved margins, stabilising net take rate and attractive valuation. Affirm is upgraded to Neutral, while KakaoPay is newly rated Sell. The stock has surged on stablecoin speculation, but Victor warns of underestimated regulatory risks, especially following Bank of Korea’s recent caution on digital assets.

- 11 July, 2025

Plenty of value in Payment companies

Technology

Galliano's Financials Research

Victor Galliano highlights PagSeguro for its attractive valuations vs. its Brazilian and global peer group. Getnet is also considered too cheap to ignore despite its challenging relationship with Santander. While Nexi is the only European payments company added to Victor’s buy list - negative sentiment as a result of poor execution on past acquisitions is more than well discounted in the share price. In the megacap names, Mastercard remains a key pick.

- 01 April, 2022