Vital Farms (VITL)

Consumer Staples

Off Wall Street

Despite the disappointing 3Q24 results that VITL reported in Nov 24, the stock has been on a tear the past two months as a severe resurgence in bird flu has driven egg prices to new record highs. Nonetheless, OWS finds increasing evidence their bear thesis is playing out as widely-followed Nielsen and Circana scanner data does not capture the full extent of VITL’s promotional activities. Additionally, while these data sources may present a rosy picture of VITL’s dollar market share, industry participants have repeatedly told OWS that more comprehensive and detailed data available from SPINS reveals steep declines in VITL’s volume market share. OWS considers the stock to be an extremely attractive risk-reward short at this time.

- 07 February, 2025

Nielsen (NLSN)

Technology

Huber Research Partners

Sentiment is going down, but numbers are going up! Ignore the cacophony of near-term issues/noise - Street downgrades (expectations that growth will be compromised by disruptors) are unwarranted according to Douglas Arthur. While he expects some disruption, he does not expect NLSN’s central role as currency to change much, if at all - and neither do the major Ad holding companies, who at the end of the day call the shots. Trades at 7.1x forward EBITDA despite emerging financials not that different from higher-valued peers: MSD organic growth, mid-40%’s EBITDA margin, improving balance sheet and heightened potential for a stock buyback. TP $35 (90% upside).

- 04 February, 2022