Olaplex (OLPX)

Consumer Discretionary

Real Street Retail Research

Negative consumer sentiment continues to gain momentum for OLPX. Ulta partnership is showing cracks and the once disruptive category-killer bonding proprietary technology has lost meaning as lower-priced "dupes" and higher-end competitors invade the transformative hair treatment space. Unannounced retail launches are popping up across all channels. New marketing and store selling initiatives have yet to show up at point of sale. Replenishment at retail and in salons continues to be at risk. Getting back to launching new innovation and re-establishing trust with the consumer could turn this story around, but new turnkey B-grade launches are a distraction and the consumer continues to read company messaging as stubborn and tone deaf.

- 14 April, 2023

Bear’s Den Idea Forum

MYST Advisors

Interesting shift in sentiment at MYST's latest buy-side event as the vast majority of participants felt the market did in fact bottom in June (vs. only a handful 5 weeks ago). The most compelling short ideas presented included:

Pfizer (PFE) - Adverse impact of Inflation Reduction Act not fully appreciated by the Street. TP $33 (30% downside).
Olaplex (OLPX) - Extraordinarily high margins to contract as competition intensifies and growth slows. TP $8 (35% downside).
Rogers Corp (ROG) - Expensive acquisition by DuPont in doubt as China regulatory approval delays persist. TP $170 (35% downside).
Sprout Social (SPT) - Low quality Software Co. trades at absurd valuation despite declining net adds / higher churn. TP $43 (35% downside).

- 16 September, 2022