Chemicals: Is the worst behind us?

Materials

Fermium Research

Frank Mitsch sees early signs of stabilisation in the chemicals sector, despite short interest sitting at 52-week (or longer) highs and persistent investor concerns around potential dividend cuts. While he remains cautious on Tronox and Huntsman’s payouts, he considers dividends from Dow and LyondellBasell to be safe. Roughly 60% of 1Q results landed within 4% of his expectations, with Olin, Corteva, FMC and Celanese leading on beats vs. the Street. Westlake was the notable miss, due to underperformance in its PEM segment, partly from unplanned downtime. After over two years of sector underperformance, exacerbated by the overreaction to Liberation Day, Frank believes the worst may be behind us; hence his recent upgrades (to Buy) on DOW, LYB and PPG. He has also been heartened by how the credit markets have been open to companies such as CE and OLN.

- 30 May, 2025

Olin (OLN)

Materials

Alembic Global Advisors

Given OLN’s impressive return profile and outperformance, relative to peers, during CEO Scott Sutton’s tenure, Hassan Ahmed wonders why the company's Board was unable to strike a deal to retain his services. However, despite Hassan’s frustration over Sutton's upcoming departure, he believes many of the strategies implemented by the outgoing CEO are sustainable. Furthermore, OLN already seems to be trading below trough valuation levels, highlighting the stock's attractiveness. Hassan's 12-month TP is $75 (55% upside).

- 29 September, 2023