Earnings manipulation, anyone?
Two Rivers has recreated the Beneish model showing the highest potential manipulators and highlighting stocks such as QXO (due to M&A-driven sales spikes for AI supply chain plans), Joby Aviation (high growth amid declining margins), Rivian (rising accruals suggesting expense capitalisation), Alpha Metallurgical Resources (falling gross margins) and Pinterest (rising balance sheet accruals and sales growth). The model's inputs are similar to some that Two Rivers use in their own Stock at Risk's Earnings Quality model - albeit with some additional proprietary “secret sauce”.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Consumer Discretionary
Don’t get run over by this IPO - the proposed $80bn valuation is equivalent to the Mkt/Cap of General Motors and implies it will sell 3m vehicles in 2030, nearly four times the number of Tesla vehicles produced over the past 12 months. RIVN has yet to manufacture a meaningful number of vehicles and competes with well-capitalised EV upstarts as well as incumbents which have decades of experience and multi-billion dollar plans to expand EV production. The stock is worth $13bn at best (84% downside).
Edition: 122
- 29 October, 2021