Financials
Tom Chanos trimmed his short ahead of earnings, covering 25% and locking in a 40% gain in 7 weeks. In his original thesis he argued HOOD was trading at ~50x 2026E adjusted EPS and ~30x sales on what he saw as peak cyclical earnings. Transaction revenue fell 44% from 2021-23, remains skewed to options and crypto, and faces regulatory risk around payment for order flow, while newer initiatives like credit cards and gold contribute only ~5% of revenue. Post-earnings, he highlights weak customer performance: including Jan losses, clients have made virtually no money since the start of the Meme Stock Era despite the S&P 500 nearly doubling, with AUM growth largely driven by net deposits. Tom remains very bearish, viewing any strength as an opportunity to rebuild the short, with a materially lower price target.
Edition: 230
- 20 February, 2026
Why smart money isn’t buying crypto stocks yet
Crypto stocks are unwinding sharply and some of the most hyped names are now down 30-50% from their highs. Markus Thielen says this isn’t just about short-term corrections - it’s about the deeper repricing of crypto’s equity narrative. Some names may still have room to fall, while others could be nearing high-conviction entry points. In June, Markus flagged that several crypto-related stocks were losing momentum, prompting his take-profit recommendation on Coinbase and warning that others could follow - notably Kakaopay, Metaplanet and Circle. Since then, the damage has been significant with all three names falling heavily. Valuations remain stretched - Circle still trades at a forward P/E of 153x, compared to 102x for Coinbase and 69x for Robinhood, leaving room for further downside. A 30% correction in Circle, or similarly in Kakaopay with its 128x P/E, would not be surprising.
Edition: 217
- 08 August, 2025
Short model portfolio outperforms by 31%
26 out of New Constructs’ 32 ideas outperformed in 1H22 with an average return of -50% compared to a 19% decline for the S&P 500. Underscoring just how important reliable fundamental research is in turbulent markets, their model portfolio has beaten the S&P by an even wider margin (48%) since the start of 2021. Top performers have been Coinbase, Carvana, Peloton, Snap, Beyond Meat and Lyft. As we enter 2H22 high conviction shorts include Netflix, Uber, Shopify and Robinhood.
Edition: 140
- 22 July, 2022