Salik (SALIK UH) United Arab Emirates
Industrials
Dubai’s growth story is only temporarily disrupted by the US-Iran war, according to Robert Crimes, who updates his long-term model for Salik. Revenue is cut by -13% in 2026E and -11% in 2031E, while traffic declines -6.5% and -6%, respectively. Estimates for 2027-30E follow a similar trend, reflecting regional pressures and a revised assumption of one new toll gate in 2028E (five over 2027-41E unchanged). EBITDA is reduced by -14% in 2026E and -8% in 2031E. Despite this, Salik rises to 3/23 on Insight’s Stock Ranking System; with shares ~20% lower YTD, the stock offers ~145% upside to Robert's TP of AED12.9. The long-term case remains intact, supported by exclusive tolling rights to 2071 and a high FCF, asset-light model
Edition: 232
- 20 March, 2026
Insight’s global Infrastructure stocks offer average upside of over 80%
Robert Crimes remains bullish on the Infrastructure sector, citing strong long-term traffic growth, resilient IRRs (averaging 11.3%, +290bps above Insight’s 8.5% Ke) and deep value in listed equities trading ~40% below NAV, despite private market transactions averaging just -3% below NAV over the past decade. Towers top the table with +136% weighted average upside, with Robert favouring Cellnex over Inwit. Railroads rank second at +113% average upside, favouring Canadian National Railway over Union Pacific and Canadian Pacific Kansas City. Contractors offer +74% upside, with Ferrovial standing out vs. Eiffage and Vinci. Airports offer +42% upside but stronger opportunities are seen in Europe with ADP, Aena and FH Zurich all offering 60%+ upside. In Toll Roads, average upside is only +19% but stock selection is key, with Salik Robert’s preferred pick.
Edition: 228
- 23 January, 2026
Salik (SALIK UH) United Arab Emirates
Industrials
Insight lifts its target price for Salik to AED11 on expectations of new toll gates and the rollout of variable pricing. The Dubai concessionaire continues to deliver strong cash generation and dividend growth, while its unique rights to future gates underline long-term potential. Sensitivity to bond yields and inflation remains a key watchpoint.
Edition: 219
- 05 September, 2025
Salik (SALIK UH) United Arab Emirates
Industrials
High efficiency, asset light, minimal capex, with high wealth & rising population, generating accelerating FCF - Salik is unique in Insight’s Global Toll Road universe as it has the right to operate all future toll gates in Dubai (vs. competitive bidding elsewhere). In Robert Crimes' updated financial model for the stock, 10 toll gates are operational and he adds 4 new value accretive toll gates in 2027-36E (AED2.8 a share). He also considers the introduction of variable pricing (from end Jan 25) as very positive, adding additional net revenues of AED170m (AED0.6 a share), substantially above management's guidance of AED60-110m. As a result, his TP increases by 45% to AED11.0 (100% upside).
Edition: 202
- 10 January, 2025
Salik (SALIK UH) United Arab Emirates
Industrials
Exclusive Dubai toll road concession connecting main economic and tourist hubs - minimal capex, high wealth and rising population to generate strong FCF. Op FCF of AED1.49bn, minus capex of only AED5m, to lead to FCF pre-dividends of AED1.44bn in 2024E. Assuming all capex is maintenance related, implies a recurring FCF yield of 5.9% in 2024E. High operating leverage given mostly fixed opex costs, thus additional traffic and inflation highly accretive to EBITDA. Robert Crimes believes SALIK is substantially undervalued by Sell Side consensus. His DDM based equity valuation of AED46.5bn & TP of AED6.21 (91% upside) implies a relatively high EV/EBITDA of 30.7x in 2024E, but this reduces to 19.4x in 2030E due to +7.7% CAGR in EBITDA in 2023-30E. IRR at current share price of 11.8%, 370bps above Insight’s Ke of 8.0%.
Edition: 171
- 13 October, 2023