AI: The economics of compute
sees the real story of GTC being the business model of compute. As AI rolls out, capacity demand is moving rapidly towards inference, and Richard would not be surprised to see it end up at 90% of the total market for AI infrastructure. He has long argued that the business case for compute is broken. NVIDIA Corp is claiming they can fix this with its new chips, increasing the revenue per GW by 5x. If true, it would change the economics of compute, and the company stands to improve the economics of AI computing more than anyone else. The fact that the market didn’t understand what Nvidia is trying to say means that it will continue to worry about longer-term growth, and the shares may continue to drift, possibly representing an opportunity to invest in the best AI company at an increasingly attractive valuation. Richard continues to hold Samsung Electronics Co Ltd and Qualcomm Inc for AI, Ouster Inc for robotics, and nuclear power.
Edition: 232
- 20 March, 2026
Technology
Contrary to Street expectations, JNK supply chain research indicates AMBA's near-term strength masks structural headwinds. Book-to-bill remains above 1.0x, channel inventory is lean and pricing is stable. However, the underlying trajectory is weaker: FY27 revenue is tracking roughly flat Y/Y, reflecting rising customer and geographic concentration risk. Two customers account for more than one-third of China revenue, while Qualcomm design activity is increasing across AMBA accounts. In addition, Samsung remains AMBA's only foundry partner for leading-edge 3nm and 5nm nodes; whereas competitors source from multiple fabs. Limited consumer exposure further constrains diversification. Recent order strength does not mitigate the single-foundry dependency or competitive encroachment now visible in JNK's tracker data.
Edition: 230
- 20 February, 2026
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)
Technology
An excellent Q4 has effectively completed the turnaround in Samsung’s shares, shifting the debate from recovery to how long to stay invested. The company has done exactly as Richard Windsor expected - abandoning HBM3 and focusing entirely on HBM4 - and he is now virtually certain that Samsung will be announced as having qualified for Nvidia and will return to being a major supplier in 2H26. With global HBM capacity constrained through at least 2026 and likely 2027, Samsung, alongside SK Hynix and Micron, will sell everything they can produce at attractive pricing for a while yet. Richard suspects that forecasts will increase again when the company reports its results in detail later this month. While he is starting to think about exiting his position in the stock, the valuation remains fairly unchallenging compared to the peer group.
Edition: 227
- 09 January, 2026
Apple: HBM reallocation adds $4bn to iPhone memory bill
Technology
JNK Supply Chain Research reveals AAPL's iPhone memory costs have doubled as a share of BOM - from 5% to 10% - driven by structural HBM reallocation, not cyclical shortage. iPhone 17 Pro Max memory runs $41-$43 per unit vs. $22 in iPhone 15 Pro Max. Across 225m annual shipments, that is $4bn in incremental cost AAPL absorbs through margin compression, not price increases. HBM production for AI accelerators consumes 3x normal wafer capacity. SK Hynix and Samsung control 95% of DRAM supply with all capacity sold through 2026. AAPL negotiates from a position of weakness and there will no relief until late 2027 when new NAND lines come online. For timing of the resulting GM impact, contact us below. AAPL and other smartphone makers are covered in JNK's Consumer Tracker.
Edition: 225
- 28 November, 2025
Technology
TD trades at levels implying investors value its operating business at near zero, reflecting deep scepticism about growth and profitability amid dependence on Samsung and exposure to memory price volatility. While these risks are real, Yuka Marosek argues they are already priced in and TD’s close ties to Samsung Japan and Toyota Tsusho provide stability and long-term relevance. Expansion into automotive and server / storage markets, supported by rising AI-driven demand for memory, offers potential for improved margins and diversification. Toyota Tsusho owns 50.1% of TD and Yuka wonders if Tsusho might eventually absorb the entire company - if Samsung allows it.
Edition: 222
- 17 October, 2025
Technology
Despite a solid Q3 beat and raise, MU shares fell on misplaced concerns over HBM oversupply. Arete sees strong FY26 growth, with HBM projected to reach ~40% of DRAM sales by late 2026, reinforcing MU’s status as an essential yet still undervalued AI stock. Nvidia continues to request additional HBM and potential resumption of H20E (with HBM3E-8Hi) sales could act as a catalyst for further global supply tightening. MU must demonstrate HBM4 competitiveness (16-layer stacking capability) within 6-8 months to ease investor concerns. Arete also expects MU to gain eSSD market share at the expense of Samsung and SK Hynix. A combination of stable traditional DRAM pricing and rising HBM mix to drive a 63% Y/Y rise in FY26 EPS to $12.78. TP increased to $150 (35% upside).
Edition: 216
- 25 July, 2025
Big Tech: Asia vs. US - Samsung spoils the chase
Technology
2024 was a banner year for mega-cap US Tech companies, with Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta rising a collective +64%. Were it not for Samsung Electronics crashing -41%, Asia’s mega-cap Tech companies (TSMC, Tencent, Samsung, Alibaba and Meituan) would have almost matched their US peers: +61% collective return (USD) without Samsung but +40% with Samsung. The good news: rolling into 2025, Crystal Shore has a positive risk rating on all 5 Asian Tech companies. Even Samsung.
Edition: 202
- 10 January, 2025
Active GEM Funds: Positioning insights
Steven Holden highlights 3 key investment themes across his Global Emerging Market fund universe: 1) Average exposure to South Korea has plummeted to 15-year lows of 9.25%. Net outflows of $2bn and a significant reduction in exposure to Samsung Electronics have collectively driven South Korean exposure down by -1.75% over the past six months. 2) Real Estate exposure is rebounding. The percentage of funds invested has risen to 76.7%, nearing a 5-year high, with average weights and benchmark metrics at their highest levels in 10 years. 3) South African Financials are experiencing a resurgence with 69.54% of funds now holding exposure - the highest percentage in 4.5 years.
Edition: 202
- 10 January, 2025
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)
Technology
Quality Gen AI play trading at a discount - Samsung has witnessed a strong recovery in its most important end markets, including global smartphone demand and memory-related semiconductor prices. However, following the recent correction, the stock now trades on an 8.9x NTM PE ratio (7.2x ex-cash), which is more than one standard deviation below its 5-year historic average trading range and a level which has historically proved to be an excellent buying point. Samsung also trades at a discount to its global peer group on both a forward PE ratio and growth adjusted PEG ratio basis, despite a relatively stronger balance sheet (net cash at 19% of M/Cap). A further improvement in returns and a peak in the Capex cycle should support a further re-rating in the valuation.
Edition: 195
- 20 September, 2024
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)
Technology
Return of the king - after a brief flirt with underweight in late 2022, active Asia Ex-Japan managers have rotated back into Samsung, pushing allocations towards record highs. It captured the largest increase in average holding weight and the largest increase in net overweight over the last 6 months. It also saw the joint 4th largest increase in the percentage of funds with outright ownership (was eclipsed by Meituan, Trip.com and BYD). Samsung has cemented itself as one of the highest conviction holdings in the Asia Ex-Japan region right now.
Edition: 164
- 07 July, 2023