Consumer Discretionary
Management’s R106bn whitespace growth opportunity is overstated since a large part of the perceived opportunity is already well serviced by the likes of market leader, Shoprite, meaning BOX will have to compete aggressively for market share. Furthermore, targets of mid-teens turnover growth over the next five years are unrealistic (planned 70 new stores p.a. would need to increase to 100 stores p.a. by FY29 and to 145 stores p.a. by FY31), while BOX’s store expansion will be debt-funded, putting it at a disadvantage vs. peers. Primaresearch also flags succession risk, with the potential exit of more than half the management team by FY27. BOX’s premium valuation to SHP is unwarranted.
Edition: 205
- 21 February, 2025
Consumer Staples
Primaresearch reviews 1H23 results and cuts their forecast FY23 diluted HEPS from 1,267cps to 1,137cps (+8.3% Y/Y), with a DPS of 633cps (+5.4% Y/Y). They lower their 12-month TP from R230.00 to R210.00 on an exit forward P/E of 14.5x. The TP is in line with their DCF valuation of R209.59. While SHP is well-positioned relative to the other food retailers, Primaresearch thinks the likely impact of loadshedding challenges in the period ahead is not fully reflected in the current share price. If loadshedding intensifies to Stage 8, SHP’s diesel costs could increase to R1.9bn, this would amount to 17% of its operating profit. They maintain their Sell recommendation.
Edition: 159
- 28 April, 2023