China Tech: Survey feedback on semiconductors
Technology
The power semiconductor market is showing signs of recovery with Q2 seeing improved sentiment and Q3 potentially marking the bottom. MOS demand is rebounding for domestic manufacturers, while overseas firms are seeing eased inventory pressures. The rebound in consumer electronics is expected to benefit the likes of Yangjie Technology and JieJie Microelectronics. In the IGBT sector, as overseas inventory clears, new energy vehicle customers may increase adoption of domestic alternatives. Companies such as StarPower Semiconductor, CRRC Times Electric and Silan Microelectronics are well positioned to gain market share.
Edition: 190
- 12 July, 2024
StarPower Semiconductor (603290 CH)
Technology
The Street continues to underestimate the negative impact of IGBT capacity oversupply and BYD's vertical integration - StarPower faces a deteriorating competitive landscape and ASP / margin contraction. AceCamp expects Industrial IGBT gross margin to fall from ~40% in 2022 to less than 20% in 2025, while Automotive IGBT gross margins will drop from 50% to under 30% over the same period. Their net income forecast is 20-30% below consensus of Rmb1.3-1.5bn in 2023, and AceCamp thinks the stock could fall to 30-40x 2023/24 PE which implies c.40% downside over the next 18 months.
Edition: 153
- 03 February, 2023