Short ideas deliver 100% hit rate in the first half of 2025
AIR delivered an exceptional 1H25, closing 20 out of 20 European Sell/Short ideas in profit, with an average return of +24.5% per idea. Standout trades included Stellantis (+56%), STMicroelectronics (+55%), Aston Martin (+54%), Remy Cointreau (+53%) and Swatch (+43%). Out of 28 Sell/Short ideas still in force (opened in the last 18 months), 20 are currently making gains. Notable winners include LEM Holding (+51%), B&M (+49%), Alten (+42%) and Mercedes-Benz (+32%). AIR continues to issue an average of 3 high-conviction short ideas per month, making them a must-follow provider for investors seeking consistent alpha from the short side.
Edition: 215
- 11 July, 2025
Swatch (UHR SW) Switzerland
Consumer Discretionary
In the context of slowing economic growth in China and concerns about lower US consumption, the pressure is on UHR. However, the Swiss company has proven to deliver highly desirable products and navigate well in challenging times. In H1, the success of MoonSwatch and strong momentum in own retail - which outperformed the wholesale channel in the US and Mainland China - showed the market the innovation capabilities of the firm. UHR shares have underperformed luxury peers in the past three months and currently trade at below 12x P/E, the cheapest it has been in 10 years. TP CHF321 (35% upside).
Edition: 171
- 13 October, 2023
Personal Luxury Goods Stocks: Europe's answer to the US tech giants
Consumer Discretionary
In the space of just five years, the share prices of the three French heavyweights, Hermès, Kering and LVMH have more than tripled - this is not far short of FAANG-style performance. However, given the scale of the growth and the return expectations already discounted, Piers Nestler wonders if these stocks are beginning to have a scarcity value themselves. If there is some value for money left, he believes it is most likely to be found in the watches and jewellery segment (highlights Richemont and Swatch), which has at least the potential to surprise on the upside.
Edition: 115
- 23 July, 2021