Industrials
Results will not live up to the enormous expectations surrounding this story, as the company shows almost no customer traction beyond Walmart. While SYM is rolling out systems across 42 WMT distribution centres through 2029, new wins have been minimal, leaving a massive revenue gap ahead. In contrast, competitors Knapp and Witron have announced dozens of new customers since 2022 including new business with WMT. Half of the company’s touted $22bn backlog sits in a stalled SoftBank JV (GreenBox), with little evidence of progress. With heavy insider selling, a recent revenue restatement, TAM overstated and the stock trading at ~10x 2027 sales, the bear case sees estimates beginning to be revised down next year and SYM’s valuation potentially halving.
Edition: 226
- 12 December, 2025
Industrials
The slowdown in system placements and acceptance has continued, while the challenges faced earlier this year are not easily fixed, according to Hamed Khorsand. SYM has only added one new site on its location list (Cullman, Alabama) in recent months. Since the company recognises revenue on a percentage of completion basis it is very likely revenue from Cullman was already recognised in prior quarters. As a result, Hamed believes the latest move higher since the stock dropped to ~$18 creates another opportunity to sell as investors realise growth is not what is currently expected by the Street. 12-month TP $10 (60% downside).
Edition: 196
- 04 October, 2024
Industrials
The share price tanks as Q3 results disappoint after an increase in system costs. During the earnings call, SYM’s management referred to delays in permits and product delivery resulting in people not having anything to do. This is a characterisation of a construction / contracting company and not one developing automated technology. Hamed Khorsand also believes these issues could create additional risks re. its relationship with Walmart. SYM’s share price has already fallen ~45% since he initiated coverage with a Sell rating a few weeks ago, but Hamed stills more than 50% downside.
Edition: 192
- 09 August, 2024