Delivery Hero (DHER GR) Germany
Consumer Discretionary
Following publication of the company’s FY24 annual report, Iron Blue’s DHER score of 30/60 remains top decile and fertile grounds for shorting. Stripped out costs remained elevated and materially exceeded FY24’s €48m PBT adj, while capitalisations expanded to 28% of total FY24 R&D expense from 20% in FY23. There were 2 changes to the group’s contingent liabilities disclosure: 1) a significant increase in the range of potential financial penalties from investigations into the legal status of riders to €440m-€770m; and 2) a new claim against Glovo Spain from Just Eat alleging unfair practices. Iron Blue also notes a reduction in Woowa’s goodwill impairment test margin assumption to 23% from 30% (albeit offset by a higher growth expectation).
Edition: 213
- 13 June, 2025
Food Delivery Apps to remain under pressure
Communications
Woozle's restaurant partners report slowing delivery fundamentals in 1Q22 with order volumes down -10% and order values -15% vs. 4Q21. Deliveroo is expected to suffer faster than market declines and reduced take-rates in 1H22 due to increased competition, poor service levels, rider shortages, and a focus on adding new restaurants and channels over servicing existing customers. Although Takeaway.com is expected to relatively outperform peers, more than half of Woozle’s sources said they would be prioritising in-person dining over e-commerce offerings in FY22 to boost margins and streamline operations.
Edition: 129
- 18 February, 2022
Just Eat Takeaway.com (TKWY NA) Netherlands
Communications
Faces increased competition as Rocket enters the Dutch market and DoorDash targets Germany, another of TKWY’s key markets. To maintain market share, TKWY was already shifting further towards the loss-making own delivery side of the business. Now, with Rocket focused on marketplace revenues (offering lower commissions to restaurants to boost market share), TKWY is also being attacked on the cash generating side. These latest developments only strengthen Teun Teeuwisse's short thesis.
Edition: 112
- 11 June, 2021