Navan (NAVN US) US

Technology

Revelare Partners

A broken IPO trading ~60% below its $25 listing price, with potential to double over the next year and deliver a 3x return over 4 years. Recent share price weakness is due to a market that has indiscriminately punished the entire software sector, as well as the company's usage yield compressing, which bearish analysts have misinterpreted as an erosion in pricing power. NAVN is the technological leader in a $185bn corporate travel and expense market, disrupting legacy incumbents with a unified platform and a differentiated model. The stock trades at ~2.9x EV/FY26 sales based on guided revenue of ~$685m - a clear dislocation for a platform growing ~29% with 74% gross margins and 13% operating margins. A path to 30%+ margins exists at scale. The setup is likened to Booking.com in 2009 when it was trading under $100/share.

- 20 March, 2026

Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO US) US

Consumer Discretionary

Quo Vadis Capital

John Zolidis’ investment case is based on a positive inflection in same-store sales producing valuation expansion as investors give more credit to unit growth and the longer-term opportunity. He believes this thesis remains intact as comps improved to -1.4% in FY25 (vs. -5.1% in FY24) and have turned positive in early FY26, with Q1 likely >2%. While the recent >10% share price drop reflects macro concerns and weak transaction trends (-6.4% in Q4), John views this as partly intentional, driven by ~10% price increases and a shift towards higher-income customers. This mix shift should support higher gross profit per ticket despite lower traffic. With the shares trading at 8x P/E and 5x EV/EBITDA (FY26 estimates) and a 9% FCF yield, ASO is a “bargain”, with an eye towards the upcoming analyst day as a near-term positive catalyst.

- 20 March, 2026

Nickel may yet surprise

Global Mining Research

Recent events brought spot nickel up to ~US7.80/lbafterabriefreturnto US8.00/lb. The three major developments that led to this are the Iran war, a decision by the Indonesian government to dramatically cut thermal coal mining permits from 790Mt to 600Mt, and another decision to cut laterite nickel mining permits to 260-270Mt versus 2025 at 379Mt. GMR has calculated an annual nickel demand growth rate at 6.2% CAGR over the last decade, but the unceasing volumes from Indonesia (see chart) have been the issue. New changes may see parts of the global nickel cash cost curve move by ~US$1.50/lb. If laterite ore is really cut back heavily, then the price impact should add to that, but very large inventories could limit substantive price moves for some time. This is all potential; good news for producers like Vale SA, Glencore PLC or MMG Ltd. It’s too late for the Cuban producers where the lack of fuel is triggering closures.

- 20 March, 2026

AI: The economics of compute

Radio Free Mobile

sees the real story of GTC being the business model of compute. As AI rolls out, capacity demand is moving rapidly towards inference, and Richard would not be surprised to see it end up at 90% of the total market for AI infrastructure. He has long argued that the business case for compute is broken. NVIDIA Corp is claiming they can fix this with its new chips, increasing the revenue per GW by 5x. If true, it would change the economics of compute, and the company stands to improve the economics of AI computing more than anyone else. The fact that the market didn’t understand what Nvidia is trying to say means that it will continue to worry about longer-term growth, and the shares may continue to drift, possibly representing an opportunity to invest in the best AI company at an increasingly attractive valuation. Richard continues to hold Samsung Electronics Co Ltd and Qualcomm Inc for AI, Ouster Inc for robotics, and nuclear power.

- 20 March, 2026

Salik (SALIK UH) United Arab Emirates

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Dubai’s growth story is only temporarily disrupted by the US-Iran war, according to Robert Crimes, who updates his long-term model for Salik. Revenue is cut by -13% in 2026E and -11% in 2031E, while traffic declines -6.5% and -6%, respectively. Estimates for 2027-30E follow a similar trend, reflecting regional pressures and a revised assumption of one new toll gate in 2028E (five over 2027-41E unchanged). EBITDA is reduced by -14% in 2026E and -8% in 2031E. Despite this, Salik rises to 3/23 on Insight’s Stock Ranking System; with shares ~20% lower YTD, the stock offers ~145% upside to Robert's TP of AED12.9. The long-term case remains intact, supported by exclusive tolling rights to 2071 and a high FCF, asset-light model

- 20 March, 2026

Space: A slow burn for investors

Industrials

Astris Advisory Japan

Japan’s space sector remains in transition: technically ambitious, strategically important and increasingly commercial, but still fundamentally dependent on launch reliability and policy execution, with recent progress overshadowed by several high-profile setbacks. Looking ahead, Neil Newman highlights 3 developments which would signal meaningful acceleration in the sector and potentially justify thematic investment consideration: 1) improving the reliability and cadence of H3 launches; 2) continued deployment and monetisation of Earth-observation and SAR constellations; and 3) stronger government procurement as space capabilities become embedded in national infrastructure and security policy. Companies flagged in Neil’s report include Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Electric, NEC, IHI, iSpace, Astroscale, Synspective and Axelspace.

- 20 March, 2026

Kyoto Financial (5844 JP)

Financials

Galliano's Financials Research

Victor Galliano upgrades the stock to Buy, arguing that the recent partial disposal of its stake in Nintendo could mark the start of a broader unwind of the bank’s large strategic equity portfolio - its primary source of potential shareholder value creation. The sale generated a ¥75.1bn gain (c.¥90bn proceeds) and reduced Kyoto’s stake from 4.2% to 3.3%, though the remaining holding still represents more than 30% of the bank’s market value. With ¥160bn in gains on stock sales, Kyoto has also been able to crystallise roughly ¥90bn of losses on government bonds, bringing its unrealised losses on the domestic government bonds still on its balance sheet close to zero. Kyoto trades at the lowest PBV among Japan’s top ten banks, while its 4.1% dividend yield also has scope to rise.

- 20 March, 2026

Regulated Utilities: No place to hide - compressing equity risk premiums

Utilities

Veritas Investment Research

Canadian regulated utilities are up ~10% YTD, outperforming the TSX, as rising geopolitical risk has driven a flight to safety and multiple expansion across defensive sectors. The re-rating has pushed equity risk premiums to levels that are difficult to justify against the prevailing rate backdrop and Veritas believes risk-adjusted returns have become materially less compelling at current valuations and recommends underweighting the sector. Their report covers Canadian-listed regulated utilities in their coverage (Emera, Fortis, Hydro One, Canadian Utilities, ATCO). Veritas’ analysis is structured around 3 analytical pillars: 1) current sector valuations relative to a yield-implied terminal capitalisation framework; 2) the macro backdrop governing utility equity performance; and 3) the company-level funding dynamics that determine whether rate base growth translates into per-share value creation.

- 20 March, 2026

Fortinet (FTNT US) US

Technology

AnteData

Structurally exposed to the shift from hardware firewalls to cloud-based security platforms and from network-based to an identity-based model, FTNT is losing ground to Zscaler and Cloudflare. Alternative data signals reinforce this view with FTNT ranking in the lowest quartile of AnteData’s measurement of coding activity trends, while freelancer job demand tied to its technologies is declining and downloads of its authentication app are falling. Although the company still holds ~18% of the global firewall market, revenue growth has slowed from ~20% in 2023 to ~12% currently, with AnteData expecting normalisation towards ~5%. With a net income margin already at 27%, they see limited scope for further expansion, making the ~34x earnings valuation appear demanding.

- 20 March, 2026

DexCom (DXCM US) US

Healthcare

Behind the Numbers

The warning signs are still there - a small earnings beat (adj. EPS of $0.68 came in 3 cents above consensus expectations) masks several earnings quality red flags investors should not ignore. BTN has previously flagged DXCM when receivables spiked, with both instances followed by disappointing results. DSOs remain too high, with one day equating to ~$14m of sales and ~1c of EPS, and estimates that, even after adjusting for rebate accruals, DXCM likely still picked up ~2 days of sales in higher receivables. Deferred revenue has continued to be drawn down, contributing an estimated $3-4m to sales. Meanwhile, rebate accruals have risen sharply from ~50 to 109 days of sales, which may indicate pricing pressure is here to stay. BTN also notes EPS benefited from ~1c of lower R&D spend and ~3c from reduced stock compensation in Q4.

- 20 March, 2026

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO US) US

Consumer Discretionary

The Retail Tracker

The Retail Tracker sees improving momentum at AEO, driven by a rebound in Aerie, which returned to growth in late 2025 following assortment resets and a renewed focus on its younger customer. They expect this momentum to continue, supported by a positive contribution from Offline despite some lingering assortment inconsistency. By contrast, the core Eagle brand remains mixed: denim is "solid" with exposure to emerging trends such as ripped jeans and bootcut styles, but tops lack impact (the online range is much better than in store). Increased marketing spend - including partnerships with high-profile celebrities and country music events - is driving traffic and sales. With the stock down ~30% amid recent market volatility, AEO is an attractive opportunity at current levels.

- 20 March, 2026

Bear’s Den Idea Forum

MYST Advisors

Short-focused events consistently rank among MYST’s best-performing Idea Forums with their last one yielding a ~70% hit rate and ~8.7% average positive alpha. The dominant theme at this meeting centred on companies confronting new competition driving share loss and margin compression, while other high-level topics included businesses facing AI-related challenges; “fading” cyclical recoveries; and GLP-1-driven demand destruction. MYST felt Calix (BEAD subsidy unwind favours lower-cost solutions + forensic red flags) and TransMedics (organ transplant tech leader facing share loss amid new competition) were “unique” and worth investigating, while convincing bearish arguments were also presented on A O Smith, Dollar General, Old Dominion Freight Line and Uber.

- 20 March, 2026

Allegro (ALE PW) Poland

Consumer Discretionary

the IDEA!

the IDEA! remains constructive on the stock following FY25 results, highlighting strong ecosystem monetisation, robust cash generation and disciplined capital returns as key pillars of the investment case. The Polish marketplace continues to fund international expansion while sustaining attractive incremental margins, with ~63% drop-through. Management reiterated its leverage framework centred around ~1x net debt/EBITDA and announced a further PLN 1.6bn FY26 buyback, which the IDEA! sees as offering downside support. However, they caution that management may be underestimating the competitive trajectory of Chinese cross-border platforms such as Temu and Shein. While EU parcel duties from July could slow growth, the competitive threat is unlikely to disappear and could pressure domestic GMV growth over time.

- 20 March, 2026

ITV (ITV LN) UK

Communications

Forensic Alpha

While ITV describes itself as strongly cash generative, FY25 results tell a different story. Cash inflow from operating activities fell sharply from £333m to £202m. Forensic Alpha also identified several other red flags, pushing ITV’s Risk Score from '8' to '10' (max. rating). Working capital has been a persistent drag, with the headwind widening from £144m in 2024 to £196m in 2025. Trade receivables rose 12% to £500m despite flat sales, driven largely by long-term balances now representing 18% of the total. Contract assets increased 33%, including a jump in non-current contract assets from £4m to £39m. Meanwhile, exceptional charges related to restructuring and M&A rose from £65m to £107m, further weighing on cash flow. For now, the market is focused on the potential sale of the M&E business. If it falls through, attention will shift back to the company’s underlying fundamentals.

- 20 March, 2026

Guidance warning season

AIR Capital

Despite rising geopolitical risk, European corporate guidance has yet to reflect the potential economic impact. In AIR’s recent management meetings, discussion focused almost entirely on AI, with little attention paid to the Iran conflict despite surging energy prices and supply-chain stress that historically drive earnings revisions. The combination of unpriced macro risk and AI-driven sectoral disruption creates a credible basis for expecting a meaningful wave of 2026 earnings guidance revisions across European equities in the coming weeks. And the performance gap between the companies on the right side of these structural shifts and those on the wrong side will broaden. Stock winners include AI infrastructure beneficiaries such as Arm, Elmos, Aixtron and STM, alongside defence exposure at Exosens and Indra Sistemas. Euronext and Auto1 are also seen as largely insulated. Under pressure are Stroeer, Freenet and SES. In IT services, the sector is splitting between “The Conquerors” (Accenture, Cognizant, Reply) and “The Endangered” (Capgemini, Atos, Sage, Dassault Systemes, SAP).

- 20 March, 2026

Gold stocks chasing copper

Global Mining Research

The proposed acquisition of Foran Mining Corp by Eldorado Gold Corp, following Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd acquiring MAC Copper, highlights the appeal of base metal mines for some gold miners. A few companies are forecast to increase base metal exposure, namely Torex Gold Resources Inc with Media Luna, Eldorado Gold Corp with the start-up of Skouries and the acquisition of Foran Mining Corp for the new McIlvanne Bay copper-zinc mine. Two primary reasons for gold stock to chase base metals are operations with minor gold can be reported as “low-cost gold mines” and the EV thematic remains appealing. Copper remains the preferred base metal for GMR, but gold is the preferred commodity for 2026. Recommended gold stocks are Barrick Gold Corp, Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (upgraded to BUY) and Kinross Gold Corp in the seniors and Equinox Gold Corp, Genesis Minerals Ltd, IAMGOLD Corp and OceanaGold Corp for near-term growth-oriented stocks.

- 06 March, 2026

Helium: A commodity on the rise

Ocean Wall

Ben Finegold points out how the global helium market is a structural oligopoly, Qatar accounting for ~30% of the world’s helium supply. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East that disrupts production or shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could put a third of the world’s supply at risk. More importantly, the availability of helium iso-containers – critical to maintaining a global supply/demand balance – could be disrupted for at least 6 months. Demand for the commodity is accelerating, particularly in the aerospace industry where it is irreplaceable as a propellant of fuel. It is also used in semiconductor manufacturing and healthcare, where substitutes have yet to be found. How should investors play it? The Renergen Helium project, owned by ASP Isotopes Inc, produces both LNG and high-purity liquid helium from the same gas field, and is one of the world’s most significant helium developments and aims to become a major supplier.

- 06 March, 2026

South Africa’s macro big bang is underway

Krutham (formerly known as Intellidex)

According to Peter Attard Montalto, the macro big bang is underway in South Africa and has entered a new phase of focus on risk premia compression. The yield curve has extended its repricing lower as the fiscal credibility reset at the 2025 budget statement has held - and was reinforced by Budget 2026 last month. The 10-year yield is around 8.2% as of March 2nd, its lowest level in 5+ years. Sovereign risk premia have continued to compress, as the fiscal golden threads remain intact despite not-too-exciting growth, while the de jure shift to a 3% inflation target has helped anchor longer-run inflation expectations and real rates. With the SARB delivering back-to-back 25bps cuts in May and July, followed by a further cut in November, the front end has repriced lower, and the curve has flattened, with the belly and long end doing most of the work as fiscal uncertainty turned into fiscal positivity and inflation risk premia compressed.

- 06 March, 2026

G-III Apparel Group (GIII US), VF Corp (VFC US), Dillard's (DDS US) US

Consumer Discretionary

Hedgeye

Hedgeye provides updates on 3 of their top Retail shorts. For GIII, they expect the next guide for the year to be an absolute disaster; forecasting a 20%+ cash flow hit from the the loss of major Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger licenses back to PVH, while prior channel stuffing and tougher retail conditions could force the company to increase markdown support to key partners. Meanwhile, VFC is caught between a heavy debt burden and weakening brand momentum; Hedgeye believes a massively dilutive equity raise will ultimately be required. And finally, DDS remains a mispriced security, trading at ~12x EBITDA despite a sharply decelerating model and the company overearning by 800-1,000bp. That suggests that the real earnings power is between $10-20 per share. 5x earnings, is an appropriate department store multiple, suggesting 80-90% downside.

- 06 March, 2026

Target (TGT US) US

Consumer Staples

R5 Capital

Scott Mushkin remains cautious on TGT despite management acknowledging some operational challenges flagged in his field research. Recent store visits continue to reveal poor endcap execution, high levels of discarded items, long checkout lines, out-of-stocks and even extreme messiness. These nagging store operating challenges are likely to take more effort to overcome than management currently believes. He also sees several structural pressures ahead. TGT may need to sacrifice gross margin to improve price competitiveness, while everyday essentials could face deflation in 2026 amid heightened competition. Meanwhile, Walmart and Amazon are unlikely to cede share and TGT’s core demographic offers limited growth. Scott believes the recent swing to positive sales reflects easy comps and short-term consumer spending variability rather than a structural improvement in demand.

- 06 March, 2026

China Internet: Opportunity after KWEB’s ~30% drop from its Oct peak

86Research

Sector valuation, as measured by 86Research’s proxy basket, now stands at a distressed 15.4x. Over the past 3 years, there has been 5 KWEB drawdowns >20% and each peak-to-trough episode lasting 3-6 months, suggesting the current correction could be nearing its end. Several catalysts may also help stabilise sentiment including Trump’s visit to China, the upcoming Two Sessions (additional stimulus) and improving economics from China’s AI leaders. In this issue of 86TradeIdeas, the team highlights several quality names that could command significantly higher multiples in a normalised market, including Trip.com, Atour and DiDi, alongside Beike, which could benefit from further housing policy support. Kuaishou and Baidu offer differentiated exposure to key AI verticals. Despite near-term geopolitical uncertainty, they see compelling re-rating potential across these names in the coming months.

- 06 March, 2026

Online travel & AI

Consumer Discretionary

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

Robert Mollins examines how OTAs are adapting to a rapidly changing environment driven by rising AI adoption. He focuses on 4 key themes: 1) AI as an emerging traffic channel; 2) structural advantages limiting disintermediation risk; 3) consumer-facing AI development across travel platforms; and 4) internal AI initiatives driving monetisation and cost-saving opportunities. AI companies have rapidly integrated tools into their assistants, raising concern over the technology’s ability to replicate functionality and reduce dependency on established platforms. Investor concern has extended beyond software into sectors with significant digital exposure, including online travel. While Robert acknowledges these risks, he believes AI assistants are more likely to evolve into a paid traffic channel rather than a vertically integrated travel marketplace capable of displacing Booking, Expedia and Airbnb.

- 06 March, 2026

China: Channel checks on leading coffee & tea brands

Consumer Discretionary

Horizon Insights

The competitive environment across the country's leading beverage chains appears to be shifting from aggressive subsidy-led share grabs towards more rational pricing and product-led differentiation. For global investors, this suggests: 1) margin recovery potential after a prolonged discount cycle; 2) strengthened positioning for category leaders with innovation capabilities; and 3) continued consolidation towards scaled operators with diversified product offerings. Luckin’s near-term fundamentals look resilient with Jan SSSG likely >10% and pricing/ASP recovering sequentially. Mixue was modestly softer due to the CNY timing shift, while Guming was a clear relative winner among tea chains with SSSG/GMV +10-15% (still HSD even ex delivery fees) and momentum likely improved further in Feb on holiday & platform campaign effects.

- 06 March, 2026

Nichias (5393 JP)

Industrials

Asymmetric Advisors

With a market cap of $3.6bn, Nichias is an industrial insulation company that Asymmetric has followed for over 20 years. While the shares have outperformed the TOPIX over the long term, the performance gap has widened materially in recent periods, a trend Asymmetric believes can continue, highlighting the group’s: 1) cash-rich balance sheet and strong FCF, supporting rising shareholder returns; 2) ability to raise margins across its business segments; 3) exposure to maintenance work related to nuclear restarts in Japan; and 4) earnings gearing to the slower than initially expected SPE cyclical pick up.

- 06 March, 2026

Nvidia's "Flammable Items"

Technology

Veritas Investment Research

Following NVDA's Q4 earnings release, Veritas believes several “Flammable Items” (these are items found in a company’s financial statements or within its operations that are waiting for a spark to ignite) it has previously identified are burning brighter and warrant continued investor attention. Their report examines whether supplier-funded demand is accelerating through channels including equity investments, a step-up in purchase commitments and expanded facility lease guarantees. The scale of these funding channels has increased materially, to the point where NVDA can effectively self-fund most of its reported revenue growth in the quarter. Veritas also isolates the contribution of “other income” in Q4 and presents an adjusted EPS intended to better reflect underlying operating performance. On this basis, they suggest that nearly the entirety of the Q4 EPS beat was attributable to “other income”.

- 06 March, 2026

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI US) US

Technology

Rosenblatt Securities

Rosenblatt reiterates their Buy rating and Top Pick status on AAOI. The company invested $209m in capex in 2026 with a focus on increasing laser and transceiver capacity in Texas. This ongoing investment is poised to drive a tripling of Data Centre revenues in 2026 and even faster growth in 2027. Amazon and Oracle 800G demand are the primary revenue drivers in 2026 along with Microsoft's solid 100G and recently renewed 400G demand. By 2027, all these customers should also be buying 1.6T. Rosenblatt’s 2026 revenues/EPS estimates increase to $1.02bn/$1.18. For 2027 their respective figures are $3.3bn/$6.25. Their new TP of $125 is based on 20x CY27 EPS forecast - a conservative multiple to account for execution risk.

- 06 March, 2026

CoStar Group (CSGP US) US

Real Estate

Paragon Intel

CEO Andrew Florance’s destructive leadership style makes him unfit to lead CSGP’s costly residential pivot. His rigid, totalitarian micromanaging is incompatible with the disciplined, multi-front execution now required, making his past strengths his current greatest liabilities. CSGP would be better served with Florance receding into an Executive Chairman role, where his visionary strategic brilliance could be offset by a disciplined operational CEO more focused on ROI than empire building. Paragon’s research includes interviews with former senior executives at CSGP who worked with Florance for more than 36 years combined.

- 06 March, 2026

Element Solutions (ESI US) US

Materials

Fermium Research

ESI exited a record 2025 with DD organic growth in Electronics and Fermium expects this momentum to continue, which was the key underpinning behind their positive initiation last Sep. Against this favourable backdrop, ESI has accelerated its efforts with two acquisitions, Micromax and EFC Gases, completed in early 2026. The company has exposure to datacentre infrastructure and high-performance computing, yet trades without the “nosebleed” valuations seen elsewhere in the AI supply chain. EBITDA grew MSD in 2H25, with implied 2026 guidance pointing to nearly double that pace - before acquisition contributions, which should lift growth into the mid-teens. Buy reiterated.

- 06 March, 2026

LeMaitre Vascular (LMAT US) US

Healthcare

Sidoti & Company

Sidoti reiterates their constructive stance on LMAT, arguing the company’s increasingly dominant niche positioning supports durable pricing power, margin expansion and visible multi-year growth. With price increases contributing meaningfully to organic growth and ~8% additional pricing expected in 2026, Sidoti sees LMAT as insulated from reimbursement and tariff pressures given its focus on critical, non-deferrable vascular procedures and predominantly single-use devices. The company will continue to benefit from the continued sales force expansion and additional European product approvals over the next several years. Backed by a strong balance sheet and capacity for accretive M&A, Sidoti increases their 2026 revenue estimate to $275.5m (from $264m) and EPS estimate to $2.86 (from $2.39). For 2027, they raise their revenue estimate to $291m (from $278m) and EPS estimate to $3.09 (from $2.67).

- 06 March, 2026

Devon Energy (DVN US) US

Energy

Kailash Capital Research

A large-cap trading at just ~11x earnings, with a ~12% FCF yield and will pay owners a 10% yield in the very near future. The Coterra deal markedly increases DVN’s stature and shale production in the Delaware Basin without incremental acquisition debt, adding ~4,600 high-return drilling locations, nearly half with sub-$40/bbl breakevens. The combined company expects $1bn+ in annual synergies and plans a $5bn buyback, materially lifting FCF/share and NAV/share. Nevertheless, investors have yet to adequately reflect DVN’s improved fundamentals in its share price, with it continuing to trade at a sharp discount to other E&P players in terms of both P/OCF and at a high required FCF yield. For each 0.5x improvement in its P/OCF multiple or a 1pp decrease in its FCF yield, DVN’s share price will rise by ~$5.

- 06 March, 2026

AI driven 10Q / 10K text analysis

280First

Since there are always reasons when companies change the wording in their financial filings, being alerted to these changes allows investors to realise potential risk factors and opportunities before they are reflected in the market. Recent alerts include: 1) AvalonBay Communities - bylaws last amended in Oct 23; is the added wording to its 2025 10K, prompted by takeover interest? 2) Diamondback Energy - loss of customers; Endeavor equityholders planning on selling shares? 3) GoDaddy - Microsoft partnership in trouble? 4) Align - more benign competitive environment. Caution on OSOs, DSOs and other large group practices. 5) Armstrong World Industries - better demand expectations. 6) Cigna - clients terminating / modifying contract terms?

- 06 March, 2026

Gross margins are rolling over, but net margin expectations remain high

Trivariate Research

Median gross margins for the Top 500 peaked at 46.4% in Feb 25 and have since fallen to 44.9% in Jan 26, yet bottom-up forecasts imply continued strong net income growth - likely reflecting embedded AI-driven productivity assumptions. Historically, Trivariate finds valuation multiples correlate more closely with gross profit growth than net income growth, implying further multiple expansion will require renewed gross margin strength or a structural shift in how markets reward earnings. Their quantitatively derived longs (e.g. Merck, T-Mobile, McDonald’s) have had recent multiple expansion and are forecasted to have margin expansion, but not more net margin than gross margin expansion. While shorts (e.g. Amphenol, Salesforce, Arista Networks, Las Vegas Sands) screen for gross margin contraction but net margin expansion, reducing estimate achievability.

- 06 March, 2026

STMicroelectronics (STMPA FP) France

Technology

AnteData

STM ranks in the upper tier of AnteData’s Coding Trend Ranking. Coding activity is trending on GitHub, showing rising developer interest in the company’s microcontroller platform. These projects typically focus on motor control, sensor reading and basic communication as used in robots, drones, cars and industrial machines. Besides, StackOverflow discussions and Google search trends are also positive, suggesting sustained ecosystem relevance and technical inquiry. In a bullish scenario (10% revenue CAGR over 5 years), operating leverage could materially expand margins, implying meaningful upside vs. today’s ~$30bn market cap.

- 06 March, 2026

Temenos (TEMN SW) Switzerland

Technology

GR20 Research

US expansion is the key swing factor for TEMN over the next 12 months. With a well-resourced US sales team, a localised product suite and a pipeline growing faster than any other region, GR20 sees favourable conditions for deal conversion in 2026. They also believe the recent “Claude Cowork effect” that weighed on software valuations is fading, with sector multiples appearing to have bottomed. In GR20’s view, current valuations imply limited terminal value in DCF models - an anomaly given TEMN’s positioning and growth prospects. The stock trades at an undemanding 4.2x/3.9x 2026/27 EV/sales and 11.9x/10.9x EV/adjusted EBIT.

- 06 March, 2026

Moncler (MONC IM) Italy

Consumer Discretionary

The Retail Tracker

The shift from puffer-only to broader fashion outerwear (wool, shearling, fur) has expanded consumers’ wardrobes, with MONC well positioned at the intersection of function and luxury. Its core styles are not overly trend-led, supporting their status as long-term investment pieces with resale value. Pricing sits above Canada Goose and Herno, but below Prada and Loro Piana, sustaining an attractive premium tier. Beyond outerwear, The Retail Tracker sees opportunity in functional yet fashionable handbags (e.g., a travel line between Rimowa and Away). Footwear remains strong but still lacks a viral breakout moment. Meanwhile, early signs of a streetwear revival could lift visibility for Stone Island and help the brand extend beyond its core. Under new leadership, renewed energy in the stock could support a move back towards the 52-week high.

- 06 March, 2026

IgA nephropathy: Optical leadership or structural advantage?

Healthcare

Foveal Research

Vertex's IgA nephropathy is being valued on perceived differentiation rather than durable commercial advantage. Foveal's report dissects how alignment, baseline architecture and segment economics reshape probability of success and peak sales assumptions across the class. They identify where consensus expectations appear stretched (VRTX, Vera) and where valuation leverage remains underappreciated (Otsuka, Novartis) ahead of key 2026 catalysts.

- 06 March, 2026

Accounting red flags surface in latest filings

Forensic Alpha

At Nexans, supplier financing increased, with payables under third-party bank arrangements rising from €341m at FY24 to €449m at FY25. Receivables securitisation and factoring programmes also grew, from €181m to €201m over the same period. Nordex saw contract assets rise from 37 to 48 days equivalent, offset by a matching surge in trade payables that neutralised cash flow impact. Accor disclosed a notable jump in long-term loans to Orient-Express entities following deconsolidation, while Airbus recorded an increase in receivables past due (from 25% of total receivables to 31%) and a release of provisions amounting to a total of €634m, a large amount of which was via “other risks and charges”.

- 06 March, 2026

The best FX trade for 2026

Eurizon SLJ Capital

In Stephen Jen’s view, USDJPY may be the best (i.e., with the highest Sharpe ratio) FX trade for 2026. With the dominant election victory, Stephen points out that the LDP has enough popular support for PM Takaichi to go through with her 3%-GDP worth of fiscal stimulus. With inflation still above the BOJ’s target (headline CPI is down to 2.1%, but core-core is still hovering around 3.0%), this prospective fiscal stimulus will likely be met with accelerated or earlier rate hikes by the BOJ. Stephen says that the US Fed and the BOJ will continue to converge in 2026, with the former cutting while the latter is hiking. Stephen argues that the US dollar itself is in a structural descent, and the particular policy mix in Japan should lead to a stronger JPY. He still views 125 as a very reasonable target for USDJPY this year.

- 20 February, 2026

Vita Coco (COCO US) US

Consumer Staples

Off Wall Street

OWS reiterates their short on COCO following 4Q25 results, arguing the print reinforces their original thesis that the company’s perceived supply chain “moat” is overstated. Management disclosed ongoing US market share losses and flagged heavier promotions, distributor incentives and stepped-up SG&A to defend growth. Private label competition is intensifying, pricing benefits are set to fade through FY26 and inventory has surged to 106 days, increasing the risk of further discounting. Meanwhile, ~96% of revenue still comes from coconut water, underscoring limited platform diversification. With insiders adopting new 10b5-1 selling plans and shares still trading at ~3.9x FY26 sales, OWS sees meaningful downside with a TP of $31 (35% downside).

- 20 February, 2026

S&P Global (SPGI US) US

Financials

Huber Research Partners

Craig Huber believes fears that AI start-ups can replicate S&P's data and tools are misplaced, noting that 95%+ of revenue is tied to proprietary benchmarks, subscription data and workflow-embedded products that cannot simply be scraped or reproduced. In Ratings, access to confidential, non-public financial information under NDAs creates structural barriers that AI entrants cannot bypass. He highlights S&P’s entrenched market position, pricing power, high margins, recurring revenues and disciplined capital allocation as unchanged. Importantly, management is investing 3-4% of its expense base annually, including in AI, which Craig sees as margin-enhancing. Bottom line, there is zero evidence that AI is hurting S&P’s financials and market position, and he does not see that changing.

- 20 February, 2026

Insider buying in beaten-down Tech stocks

Technology

Smart Insider

Smart Insider flags a number of insider buys at Hexagon, Sage and ATOSS following recent share price weakness, ranking all 3 stocks +1 (highest rating). At HEXA, the new CEO, Chief Strategy Officer and Vice Chair made their first purchases, buying a combined €3.4m of stock, shortly after results and the announced spin-off of Octave Intelligence. At SGE, 2 long-serving non-execs bought stock, including one director tripling his holding in a rare purchase and at a higher price than his last buy 5 years ago. At AOF, the CEO invested €11.6m (adding 4% to his stake) and the long-tenured CFO made his first-ever purchase - a notable shift from a series of smaller sales.

- 20 February, 2026

Everest Group (EG US) US

Financials

Ben Jones Investments

The investment thesis is straightforward: EG's market cap is $13.7bn, its book value is $15.5bn and it generates >$2bn per year from investment income alone. In other words, EG could make no money at all through its core reinsurance and insurance businesses every year, and still be undervalued. It is an incredibly low bar for positive returns. The core risks would be heavy insurance losses going forward or significant deterioration in the investment portfolio. The losses required would need to be much more serious than simply a ‘bad catastrophe’ year, it would require multiple years of dreadfully written business. Ben Jones thinks this is highly unlikely, especially as the group is moving in the correct direction by limiting casualty business and purchasing additional cover for previously written long-tail business.

- 20 February, 2026

Vinci (DG FP) France

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Robert Crimes updates its long-term forecasts for the stock and increases his TP to €192 (40% upside). The company boasts a high-quality mix of French autoroutes, international airport concessions, while Energies benefits from global megatrends driven by energy transition and digital transformation. In 2026-30E, Robert estimates DG will generate >€30bn of cumulative FCF pre-dividends. He assumes ~€20bn is returned to shareholders including €17bn of dividends, supporting a DPS CAGR of +10% over the period, plus €3bn of net share buybacks, while still leaving c.€8bn of additional capital available for debt reduction (yet Group ND/EBITDA is already low at 1.3x in 2026E), long-duration acquisitions (most likely airports) to increase the company's weighted average Concession duration or enhanced shareholder distributions.

- 20 February, 2026

Aditya Vision (AVL IN), Brainbees (FIRSTCRY IN), Bluestone Jewellery (BLUESTONE IN) India

Consumer Discretionary

India Independent Insight

Iii conducted channel checks across the 3 companies to assess demand, competition and store economics. Footfall is flat to modestly down, growth is increasingly promotion- or online-led and store-level productivity appears constrained - pointing to normalisation rather than reacceleration in discretionary demand. On FirstCry, consensus expects multichannel growth to reaccelerate to mid-to-high teens via RocketBees and FC Quick, however, Iii believes execution delays and intense competition will keep growth in low single digits. For Bluestone, the Street assumes Q3’s operating leverage and ~12% pre-IndAS EBITDA margin are sustainable, but Iii expects margins to deteriorate within 1-3 quarters as seasonally weaker revenues expose a high fixed-cost base. At AVL, incremental store expansion appears supported by discounting and channel inventory build rather than productivity-led leverage.

- 20 February, 2026

TGCC (TGC MC) Morocco

Industrials

AlphaMena

AlphaMena sees TGCC as a prime beneficiary of Morocco’s structural investment cycle, demonstrating resilience and robust operational performance despite broader market volatility. The company’s strategic positioning on high-visibility infrastructure provides rare multi-year visibility and underpins a strong order book. Growth has been driven by the integration of STAM VIAS and expansion in civil engineering, lifting cumulative operating income +51% Y/Y, while net debt has significantly reduced. Flagship projects such as the Mohammed V Airport terminal and Grand Stade de Benslimane reinforce long-term revenue visibility ahead of the 2030 World Cup. A ~18% post-summer 2025 share price correction, presents an attractive entry point for investors, with AlphaMena targeting 30%+ upside.

- 20 February, 2026

TSMC (2330 TT)

Technology

Arete Research

Arete describes TSMC’s 4Q25 call as one of the most significant tech updates in years. There were some seismic statements from the normally conservative management team: $52-56bn 2026 capex, “significantly higher” three-year spend, AI accelerator growth at a mid- to high-50% CAGR to ’29 and a 25% five-year overall revenue CAGR. Arete believes TSMC has unmatched visibility across the AI supply chain and is effectively fully booked at the leading edge through 2027, with hyperscaler capex underpinning multi-year demand. They model N2 capacity ramping to ~295k wpm by YE28 and see pricing power (including US wafer premiums) sustaining low-to-mid 60s gross margins. Despite execution and hiring risks, Arete lifts their TP to NT$2,770 (45% upside), viewing earnings growth - not multiple re-rating - as the key driver.

- 20 February, 2026

Indika Energy: Moody's downgrades ratings to B1 from Baa3