Cycle convergence: Oil, geopolitics and crisis risk

RW Advisory

Ron Williams explains how the correctly anticipated Q1 2026 shakeout signals a structural repricing rather than routine macro volatility. Cycle convergence; late-cycle economics, geopolitical tension, and behavioural reflexivity, is pushing markets to price credibility risk and supply fragility ahead of fundamentals. Oil has become central to this shift, increasingly trading as a geopolitical hedge amid rising volatility and renewed attention to chokepoint risk. A longer historical view of Iran shows recurring phases of strain, rupture, consolidation, and renewed pressure. Current developments suggest another inflection window, unfolding within a broader transition in the global order that favours hard assets and resilience over precision.

- 20 February, 2026

US: Rumble in the market jungle

RW Advisory

The bull may have danced like a butterfly, but the bear has once again shown its ability to sting like a bee. US equities recently triggered a 5% drawdown alert from their 52-week highs, with S&P500 key support at 6500. Only a weekly close above psych level at 7000 would neutralise the mean-reversion signal. Ron Williams points out that late-cycle signals are flashing: broad market weakness, crowded mega-caps under pressure despite strong earnings, shifts in investor psychology towards balance-sheet strength, and macro uncertainty. As risk appetites fade, gold remains a resilience diversification play while it’s LT trend holds above $3,930. Multiple timing models suggest a potential high-risk cyclical inflection heading into Q1 2026, with tightening conditions, slowing growth, margin pressures and crowded trades converging. Ron advises investors to stay flexible, patient and diversified, to emphasise balance-sheet quality over speculative growth, and to follow RWA tactical strategies to enhance trade setups and market timing.

- 12 December, 2025

Retail Cross Currents: 4 key themes & top stock ideas

Consumer

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

GHRA highlights an unusually volatile retail backdrop through late 2025 and early 2026, noting multiple “cross currents” affecting both consumers and retailers. Recent rating changes include downgrades for Dollar Tree (Reduce) and BJ's Wholesale Club (Hold), while upgrades cover Williams-Sonoma (Buy), Wayfair (Accumulate), Kohl's (Accumulate) and Dick's Sporting Goods (Hold). GHRA’s key investment themes emphasise: 1) stocks offering both EPS upside and multiple expansion (Five Below, Ross Stores, Burlington); 2) underappreciated turnaround stories (Kohl's, Dollar General); 3) selective “rate-trade” exposure favouring home furnishings over home improvement (Williams-Sonoma, Wayfair, Tractor Supply); and 4) secular winners / “Coffee Can” stocks (Walmart, Costco, TJX, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Casey's).

- 03 October, 2025

Williams-Sonoma (WSM)

Consumer Discretionary

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

Chuck Grom upgrades WSM to Buy, forecasting a Q2 sales rebound (+3% SSS) that could mark the start of a multi-year furniture industry recovery. Pent-up demand (particularly among higher-income consumers), easing macro headwinds (tariffs, remodelling slowdown, etc.) and increase in the SALT cap, are all expected to benefit WSM. The company’s strategic move away from heavy promotional activity over the past two years also gives WSM more pricing power in a sector that is likely to see price augmentation. Emerging brands and a growing B2B channel offer longer-term growth optionality. Chuck raises his FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates to $8.75 and $9.40, both above consensus.

- 25 July, 2025

Long & short ideas in the Consumer and Retail sectors

The Retail Tracker

Target (TGT) - product improvements continue; stronger value message positions TGT for a better year ahead.
Gap (GPS) - key brands Gap & Old Navy building momentum; while the new CEO is expected to have a positive impact.
Nike (NKE) - lower expectations off Nov Qtr impacted the stock, but adding back retailers allows for EPS acceleration throughout 2024.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM) - the stock is at an all-time high; sees a mismatch between expectations and earnings performance.
Kohl's (KSS) - continues to struggle with its business, yet the stock has traded up with peers, look for share weakness on 4Q results.
VF Corp (VFC) - not convinced the company can turn it around after a tough 2023 as it looks to trim its portfolio of brands.

- 23 February, 2024

There are two lanes in retail winning right now - momentum and improvement

Consumer Discretionary

The Retail Tracker

Brands with good momentum include Lululemon, Abercrombie, Chico’s, Steve Madden, LVMH, Prada, Ralph Lauren and Macy’s. According to The Retail Tracker, these retailers are entering the back half of the year with the consumer on their side and good assortments. In the improvement lane, they highlight Gap, Target, American Eagle, Bath & Body Works and Nike. They also like the risk:reward in two currently out of favour names - Williams-Sonoma (a high-quality company, with exceptional brands / leadership) and Victoria's Secret (left for dead / trades at a steep discount).

- 04 August, 2023

4Q22 Earnings: A quantitative and predictive outlook

Energy

Cmind

Cmind is rolling out 4Q22 earnings beats / misses predictions at both the sector level and company level. In the Energy sector, they have made predictions for 182 US public companies. Breaking down to cap level, there are 34 large-cap (28 predicted to beat vs. 6 predicted to miss), 37 mid-cap (20 beats vs. 17 misses) and 111 small-cap ( 52 beats vs. 59 misses) companies. Overall, the energy sector is predicted to outperform most other sectors. Stocks expected to beat: Schlumberger, Diamondback Energy, Halliburton and Plains All American Pipeline. Stocks likely to miss: Cheniere Energy, Williams Companies, Enbridge and Imperial Oil.

- 20 January, 2023

Williams-Sonoma (WSM US) US

Consumer Discretionary

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

A must own name. Expectations were high heading into WSM’s Q121 print - it smashed these expectations, delivering total comp growth of 40.4% with EBIT margin of 15.9% (+950bps). Importantly, results included a much needed 'X-Factor' as management raised FY guidance (which incl. YoY revenue growth in each Qtr.) and LT guidance. There is more than enough evidence that spending on the home area will remain elevated well into 2022, which when coupled with Sonoma's less promotional model and occupancy cost reduction efforts should translate into material earnings upside in the coming quarters.

- 28 May, 2021