Healthcare
GH has two new liquid biopsy products that are ramping quickly and are well positioned. There is a massive TAM to go after: $100bn vs. current industry revenues of ~$3-5bn. Abacus believes Shield, one of the new products, could transform GH, with revenues growing from $60m this year to $700m in 2028, with further upside if Shield evolves into a multi-cancer screening platform. GH’s first-mover advantage is significant, provided the company demonstrates strong commercial execution. Abacus does not anticipate the need for additional capital, though a modest equity raise in 2026/27 to support growth would not be surprising. They target ~150% upside over the next 3-4 years.
Edition: 221
- 03 October, 2025
Healthcare
EXAS’s Cologuard business (~75% of revenues) faces disruption from upcoming blood-based colorectal cancer tests by Guardant Health and Freenome, as well as competition from several new stool-based tests. Encouraged by EXAS management, OWS believes investors are underestimating these competitive threats. Meanwhile, the group’s strategy to expand beyond Cologuard appears to be floundering. A string of Precision Oncology acquisitions have shown little success so far and growth of the acquired businesses appears to be slowing significantly. TP $39 (40% downside) is based on 2.5x OWS's 2028 sales estimate of $3.5bn.
Edition: 175
- 08 December, 2023