Summary

Dr. Ed Yardeni is emphatically bullish, calling this a modern “Roaring 2020s” that can carry into the 2030s if policy avoids a Smoot–Hawley-type mistake. He argues the U.S. economy has proven unusually resilient through tariffs, the pandemic, supply shocks and rapid Fed tightening, with strength coming from two engines: consumers—especially affluent baby boomers retiring with an estimated $80T in net worth who are spending on travel, leisure, healthcare and home upgrades—and business capex, over half of which now goes to technology (software, cloud, data centers). Yardeni sees AI as overhyped in marketing but real in impact: a tool that boosts experienced workers and lifts productivity toward 2–3% annually, supporting faster real GDP, moderating unit labor costs and real wage gains even if hiring cools. He thinks tariffs have kept inflation stuck near ~3% but expects a return toward 2% as effects fade, with the Fed’s renewed “put” adding tailwinds and risk of a melt-up. Market-wise, he targets the S&P 500 at ~7,000 by year-end, ~7,700 next year, and ~10,000 by 2030, consistent with EPS rising from ~$265 this year to ~$455 by decade’s end; a ~22x forward P/E is sustainable absent recession. Pullbacks, credit scares, and geopolitics are “panic attacks” — buyable, not regime-ending.