Summary

Pavol Povala, Founder of Allocation Strategy, focused on building resilient investment portfolios in an increasingly disruptive and uncertain macro environment. Pavol outlined why traditional, history-based asset allocation tools struggle to address today’s complex and interrelated risks. He presented a forward-looking, macro-driven framework that links asset prices directly to economic drivers across multiple horizons. The discussion highlighted the importance of scenario analysis beyond historical data, including counterfactual macro shocks. Through a practical case study, Pavol demonstrated how portfolios can be redesigned to improve resilience to inflation and stagflation risks. The call also explored how institutional investors can use advanced analytics, scenarios and model portfolios to make more robust allocation decisions.

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