Thu 19 Jan 2023 - 15:00 GMT / 10:00 EST

Three Lessons from 2022

- War Like: asset prices behaved as they typically do during major wars.

- Inflation: High nominal wage growth not driven by tight labour market.

- Good in Parts: Some sectors of the economy are in recession, others not.

Three Themes for 2023

- China Reopening: downward shock to growth followed by rebound.

- The Truce: Fed Pause, Ukraine Cease Fire, China/US Tensions ease

- The Transformation: Automation, AI, EVs, Climate Tech in the vanguard

Where Next?

- Expect global production to fall outright in Q1, and rebound somewhat in Q2.

- Inflation and supply chain pressures to ease further in Q1, inviting a Fed pause.

- Once China rebounds, oil and copper likely to follow suit.