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War, Recession and Transformation - Lessons from '22 and Themes for '23

WilmotML

Thu 19 Jan 2023 - 15:00 GMT / 10:00 EST

Topics

Three Lessons from 2022

    - War Like: asset prices behaved as they typically do during major wars.
    - Inflation: High nominal wage growth not driven by tight labour market.
    - Good in Parts: Some sectors of the economy are in recession, others not.

Three Themes for 2023

    - China Reopening: downward shock to growth followed by rebound.
    - The Truce: Fed Pause, Ukraine Cease Fire, China/US Tensions ease
    - The Transformation: Automation, AI, EVs, Climate Tech in the vanguard

Where Next?

    - Expect global production to fall outright in Q1, and rebound somewhat in Q2.
    - Inflation and supply chain pressures to ease further in Q1, inviting a Fed pause.
    - Once China rebounds, oil and copper likely to follow suit.