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Thailand: How long will this New Government Last?

Teneo

Wed 04 Oct 2023 - 10:30 BST

Summary

Bob Herrera-Lim, from Teneo, discussed Thailand's political situation, with a focus on the government's survival and potential civil unrest in the coming year due to regional political complexities. The Pheu Thai party, led by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, assumed power as an alternative after facing resistance from royalists and monarchists. However, the government's stability remained uncertain. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin faced challenges as he lacked the support of traditional party factions. The government's immediate economic measures aimed to jumpstart the economy and attract foreign investment. There was a desire for change among the electorate, but traditional elites retained their power. This misalignment could lead to protests and instability. Political distractions, including leadership survival and protests, could disrupt long-term reforms and economic development, impacting foreign investors. Thailand faced intensified regional competition, underscoring the importance of political stability.

Topics

The rise of Thaksin’s For Thais (PT) party to lead the new government was a quick (and opportunistic) fix to a potential political impasse

Why the misalignment between popular sentiment and the current government could result in short-lived stability

Why populist measures are the likely outlook for policy

Keeping the coalition together could be distracting, with negative effects on structural reform

Thailand's longer-term growth outlook could be in jeopardy, facing challenges from Vietnam and Indonesia