Industrials

Report by ResearchGreece

Still the best infrastructure play in Greece - ResearchGreece raises their TP to €30.6 (from €26.9) following model updates reflecting recent milestones, including commencing operations at Attiki Odos, progress at Kasteli Airport and securing the North Crete motorway concession, with Egnatia Odos still pending. Following its energy JV with Motor Oil, GEK’s results will now focus on construction and concessions, with the power and supply business equity-accounted. ResearchGreece sees Attiki and Egnatia driving a doubling of Group EBITDA by 2028, valuing operating concessions, Egnatia and Kasteli Airport at €21/share, equivalent to ~90% of GEK’s current m/cap. Updated forecasts factor stronger motorway traffic and higher financing costs, with valuation led by concessions (69% of total) in their SOTP model.

Industrials

Report by ResearchGreece

While ResearchGreece is still struggling to comprehend the premium on Terna Energy’s speculated €22-23/share M&A price, it does not change the fact that GEK is reportedly close to selling its 37% stake in the company. If GEK pockets ~€1.0bn from the sale, what does that mean for the implied valuation of the remaining major assets / investments in its portfolio? It means they are seriously undervalued! GEK is a great stock pick for long-term investors favouring infrastructure plays. TP €15.00 (40% upside).