Report by Two Rivers Analytics

Two Rivers’ model seeks companies that are potentially “over-earning” - defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. Provides fertile hunting ground for shorts if the reasons for the margin increase are either unsustainable or fraudulent. The best short candidates include:

BKE - No sales growth pre-Covid. Gross margins have since risen from 40% to 48% and EBITDA margins from 14% to 25%.
HCA - Incremental gross margins have reached 40% vs. sub-20% GAAP. Trades at record high EV/S and EBITDA multiples.
OMI - Stock trades based on the continuation of very high margins. Insiders are suddenly and sharply selling off shares.