Healthcare

Report by Two Rivers Analytics

ESTA’s product safety claims are based on flawed studies, according to Eric Fernandez. He argues that the studies cited by the company are either very small, self-reported, or produced by conflicted sources. Additional concerns include: 1) Overhyped product innovation - there is little that stands out as the basis for significant market share capture in the US or China, as bulls believe. 2) Competitors have a far longer history and much more resources. 3) Management and governance issues abound. 4) Cash flow is very weak and leverage is high. Eric expects the company to miss forecasts in 2025, causing a downward rerating and shedding of its lofty multiples (trades at 8x sales).

Healthcare

Following interviews with several industry specialists, Blueshift finds ESTA will not reach anywhere near majority market share in the US with its Motiva breast implants and faces scepticism about its minimally invasive augmentation technique. Multiple sources cited Sientra as a cautionary tale: it launched in the US with a strategy similar to ESTA (premium pricing based on claims of improved safety) but has largely given up on its pricing goals and has peaked at about 15% market share. Sources forecast Motiva’s US market share at a similar level.