Technology

Report by Abacus Research

The shift towards 800 VDC data centre architectures creates a major new opportunity for SolarEdge and Enphase, whose distributed solar engineering expertise positions them well to handle the hyper-fast, chaotic load swings created by AI infrastructure. Both companies are repurposing existing R&D and already have products in testing, with Abacus arguing their architectures could compete effectively against traditional industrial incumbents such as Eaton and Vertiv. Abacus estimates the emerging market opportunity could reach ~$5-6bn by 2031 and believes successful adoption of 800 VDC systems could ultimately double earnings for both companies. Navitas is also highlighted since it provides the chips needed to make solid-state transformers work for companies such as VRT, ETN and ENPH; no matter whose product wins, NVTS benefits.

Report by Vermilion Research

Is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the “Negatively Inflecting” and “Toppy” columns within Vermilion’s Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

Charts highlighted include Corteva (see above), Enphase Energy, General Mills, Kraft Heinz, Hershey, MarketAxess, Moderna, Newmont, Penumbra, Roblox, SolarEdge and Valmont Industries.

Energy

Report by Abacus Research

Solar demand will continue to grow at a fast pace for at least a decade driven by the "game changing" US clean energy bill and Europe’s need to replace Russian gas / decarbonise. Abacus believes the US duopoly of Enphase and SEDG is well protected. In Europe, they expect both firms will take share from string inverters but will continue to face competition from cheaper Chinese products. SEDG should be able to expand operating margins from 15% to ~18-19% over the next few years despite the higher growth in lower margin areas such as commercial and batteries. Abacus’ EPS estimate for 2025 is ~25% ahead of the street. TP $430 (45% upside).

Energy

Growing momentum in decarbonisation - stock pullback provides an enticing entry point. Improving supply chain dynamics and growing residential storage contributions (potentially +$500m in incremental revenue through 2022) will drive growth for ENPH with potential upside from grid services and portable power. Following similar selloffs, Webber Research also recently upgraded both SolarEdge and TPI Composites to Buy.