Report by Gradient Analytics
GR
Gradient’s main short-term concern is potential top-line disappointments driven by a host of demand-related factors, including elevated inventory levels at major customer, Ciena (among others), lower levels of data-centre Capex spend, lower demand for smartphone 3D sensing products and softer sales of Commercial Lasers products. A relative spike in AR exacerbates their concern and unusual growth in prepayments and other current assets adds another margin headwind in coming quarters. Additionally, disproportionate inventory growth appears to predate the NeoPhotonics merger and current inventory levels appear disconnected from near-term demand.