Industrials

Report by Insight Investment Research

Following the release of PINFRA’s FY23 results, Robert Crimes updates his long-term model forecasts - his price target of MX$343 offers nearly 100% upside. The investment case focuses on 1) An attractive mix of mature assets and newer developed assets ramping up. 2) High EM traffic growth (+2.9% CAGR in 2023-35E). 3) Strong returns in Mexican toll roads - EBITDA margins of 79.6% in 2023 (LT EBITDA growth of +6.0% CAGR in 2024-40E). Toll road opex is low and Robert estimates average construction costs per km of c.€7m, to be 1/3 of Europe but tolls per km of €0.07 only 1/3 less. 4) High IRR guarantees. 5) Rising dividend yield - from 3.1% in 2023 to 5.5% in 2025E and 13.0% in 2030E.

Industrials

Report by Insight Investment Research

Strong recovery from Covid, high lifetime FCF & IRR.s intact - companies covered by Robert Crimes offer an average upside of 73%. Europe (+98%) leads the way, followed by Asia Pacific (+51%) and South America (+43%). Highest average upside for Towers (+98%); prefers Inwit (+130%) to Vantage Towers and Cellnex. Airports (+81%); top pick is Aena (+131%). Stock selection in Toll roads is crucial - favours PINFRA & Aleatica in Mexico, offset by no upside for CCR in Brazil. In Contractors, Robert's top pick (and his No.1 ranked stock) is Ferrovial (+143%).