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Shorts continue to deliver strong alpha
Vision initiated 5 new shorts and closed 9 in Q1. Regarding the closed shorts, alpha ranged from 46% on the high end with AAK, to 6% on the low end for Assa Abloy. Other closed shorts included Fluidra, KION Group, Dorman Products, Planet Fitness, Pop Mart, Smoore International and Techtronic Industries. Consistent with Vision’s pursuit of liquid and non-consensus ideas, the 5 new shorts in Q1 had median average daily $ volume of >$150m and median short interest % of free float of 2.5%. Their new shorts include European luxury, European telco, European cap good, US restaurant and US healthcare.
China Consumer Sector: High conviction ideas
Consumer
Laopu Gold (6181 HK) - Has positioned itself as the premier brand in China's traditional handcrafted gold jewellery market; looks poised to capture an increasing share of this expanding market.
Pop Mart (9992 HK) - IP retail, centred around emotional value, will maintain strong global momentum with relatively low competition. If SSS and store expansion remain in a growth cycle, there is a high likelihood of continued earnings outperformance and upward revisions.
Yue Yuen Industrial (0551 HK) - Global leader in sports footwear manufacturing. With ongoing cost optimisation and efficiency improvements, it can target a 10% net profit margin, exceeding market expectations and serving as a positive catalyst for the stock.
Consumer Discretionary
Zheng Tu (Director since 2019) sells 16m shares at HKD 35.10, reducing his holdings by 50%. This is certainly an abrupt and aggressive % sale from Tu, and his first trade in the shares. Smart Insider ranked the stock -N on May 2nd based on what also appeared to be a very aggressive % sale from Yu He (Director since 2019), who sold all his shares at HKD 32.32. They are now downgrading the stock further, from -N to -1 (lowest ranking).