Gold: On track, but costs a challenge
David Radlyffe’s covered gold stocks have seen healthy margins and substantial shareholder returns as a result of the average H1/2026 gold price of US$4,689/oz. Traditionally, H2 is stronger for production for gold producers. Eldorado Gold Corp, Alamos Gold Inc, Torex Gold Resources Inc, SSR Mining Inc, Pan American Silver Corp and Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd are below annualised guidance in 1H26 with Eldorado and Torex relying on project ramp-up to hit guidance. Alamos trimmed guidance. Cost pressures weigh on the gold and silver miners driven by mostly by energy and royalties. Only Newmont Corp and B2Gold Corp are tracking below AISC guidance with Barrick Mining Corp, Centerra Gold Inc, Kinross Gold Corp Lundin, Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd within guidance range. Strong gold prices help margins. GMR preferred miners are lower risk Agnico, Kinross and Fresnillo Plc, and those with higher delivery risk/growth/value potential such as Eldorado, Equinox Gold Corp and Alamos amongst the year-end December stocks.
Lithium: The aspirational commodity
David Radclyffe notes that after being in a down trend since May 2026, prices look to have potentially bottomed. David observes that lithium remains the aspirational commodity because everyone wants battery chemistry to continue to require lithium, volumes to grow quickly, and consumption to run ahead of supply. Although lithium carbonate retreated from May peaks of US$28/kg to US$21/kg in July on over-supply concerns, prices have moved well above the cost curve that shut in capacity across 2024-2025. David highlights that idled supply is now rushing back to market, with planned restarts at Bald Hill, Wodgina, Ngungaji, and Finniss alongside new hard rock supply. Simultaneously, Rio Tinto PLC targets 200kt/yr installed capacity by 2028, while fast growing Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd targets 120kt in 2026. David argues the market faces opposing drivers: climbing supply is colliding with robust H1/26 demand, where energy storage systems are beating expectations and EV sales see a tailwind from high oil prices.
Singapore: Breaking an 18-year ceiling
Chris Roberts believes a sustainable secular advance is now underway for the iShares MSCI Singapore ETF (EWS US, last USD33.93), following a near 19-year, classic net sideways, secular bear market. Monthly technicals show a break above an 18-year ceiling extending from USD27.50 to USD29.65. With the ETF trading more than 15% above USD29.65, they view the long-term minimum target as USD55.00-58.84. However, with the 9-month RSI at 88 approaching extremely overbought territory and the 14-week RSI at 79, near-term caution is warranted after the breakout from a 9-month rectangle exceeded its USD32.90 target. Having entered 50% long from USD30.19, Chris is taking partial profits by selling 20% at market. The stop on the remaining 30% long balance stays at a daily close below USD27.85 for now, looking to buy back into a decent setback.
Technology
AVGO has approved a panel fan-out packaging supplier for its META programme, with customer qualification - rather than equipment availability - previously the key constraint on bringing capacity online. The largest accelerator packages have outgrown the conventional round-wafer formats, while rectangular panels offer roughly a third more usable area, albeit with greater warpage risk. JNK sees equipment constraints easing, with the bottleneck now shifting downstream into probe-card test capacity, where below-target yields increase the amount of testing required for each good die. The read-through extends to Advanced Micro Devices, Applied Materials, Onto Innovation, FormFactor and Corning.
SaaSpocalypse dying
Technology
Another excellent performance from Snowflake in Q2 hammers a further nail into the coffin of the SaaSpocalypse theme that had taken the sector down sharply. Richard Windsor sees the results as further evidence that enterprises will continue to need software and are increasingly turning to existing vendors to help deploy AI in a safe and controlled way - a positive read-through for Salesforce, SAP, ServiceNow and Adobe. He is less enthusiastic on SNOW itself, however, given a valuation of more than 150x FY27 P/E. Richard sees better value elsewhere and owns NOW and ADBE, which remain only around 25% of the way to his target prices.
Industrials
Two senior board members bought a combined €236,000 of stock between 20th and 31th August at an average price of €53. Their previous purchases were in March 2023 at around $27, when Smart Insider also assigned their highest (+1) ranking, making it notable that both are buying again after a three-year gap at nearly twice the price. Juan Manuel Hoyos Martinez De Irujo, Lead Director since January 2020, bought €73,000 in only his second clean purchase since joining. Vice Chairman Oscar Fanjul Martin bought €163,000, increasing his stake by an estimated 6%, with Smart Insider noting that he has a better-than-average track record. They therefore once again rank the stock +1.
Technology
SES continues to look like a strong company with sensible rates of growth, good finances and high levels of financial productivity. Management is also clearly excited by prospects in a world of rapid technological innovation and they recently outlined detail of the targets for 2027 and 2028 which involve continued premium revenue growth along with higher margins. But markets seem to have missed most of this. The implied to Y3 EBITM ratio is only 35. If everything works as it ought to then Willis Welby can still see 100% upside.
Consumer Discretionary
The recent stock decline may suggest otherwise, but TSCO is a structurally stronger business than pre-Covid, supported by a larger needs-based sales mix, deeper customer engagement and store productivity that remains attractive despite moderating comps. Brian McGough views current pressure as cyclical, with discretionary weakness offset by resilience in the core business. He also pushes back on the idea that the pet category is “broken”, arguing assortment, value, digital/subscription and services initiatives can stabilise performance and rebuild share. Longer term, Brian thinks the Street is massively underestimating earnings power, helped by another ~800 stores and potential mid-to-high-single-digit comps when housing recovers. He sees ~50% upside over 18 months and a TAIL double on his base case model.
SSA Telecoms: Slower but still strong
Communications
New Street remains positive on Sub-Saharan African telecom operators following a solid Q2, with sector service revenue and EBITDA still growing more than 20% and 30% Y/Y in dollar terms despite some slowdown in Nigeria. Airtel Africa led on top-line growth, while MTN outperformed on EBITDA and operating free cash flow. Higher oil prices are emerging as a near-term margin headwind and should become more visible in H2, but New Street expects the impact to be less severe than after the Ukraine shock given improved market structures and greater pricing power. They also see Starlink as a limited competitive threat in Africa, with fixed wireless access better suited to the region. Valuations remain attractive relative to the growth opportunity, with AAF, Vodacom and MTN all featuring in New Street's GEM Top-10 picks.
Consumer Discretionary
The shares have more than halved from their 52-week high after three pressures hit simultaneously: a full-lineup model changeover, softer China auto demand and rising battery/memory costs. 86Research believes each is now behind the company or turning. The L-series refresh is complete, while upcoming BEV launches including the new MEGA and i9 should broaden the addressable market as EREV and BEV orders become more balanced. Cost pressure is being tackled through greater vertical integration, with in-house cells, BMS and battery packs now shipping and the MACH M100 chip lowering compute costs. Management sees vehicle margin recovering towards 15% by Q4 and 15-20% longer term. With net cash of RMB78.5bn, equivalent to ~95% of the share price, plus a US$1bn buyback, 86Research sees compelling risk-reward.
Latin America: Go big or go home
Aurelion sees LatAm equities as increasingly well positioned to benefit from a broader rotation out of US equities and Big Tech, as commodity tailwinds, improving political clarity (in select markets) and depressed valuations begin to align. Their highest-conviction markets are Colombia and Argentina, with Peru also supported by strong fundamentals, while Brazil requires greater selectivity, and Mexico and Chile offer less attractive near-term risk-reward. Aurelion has built a diversified equity basket focused on companies they believe offer the most compelling combination of quality, upside potential and exposure to the LatAm growth story. The 30 stocks all trade on US exchanges to ensure accessibility and liquidity for investors, tilted towards banks, utilities, transportation and telecoms, with holdings including Itau Unibanco, Pampa Energia, Credicorp, FEMSA and ASUR.
How to play the shift from Kioxia/Nikkei focus to TSE Growth
Yuka Marosek sees early signs that investor attention may be broadening beyond the Nikkei’s AI/semiconductor winners but does not have strong conviction that broad TSE Growth outperformance will persist. Instead, her preferred strategy is to target smaller “picks-and-shovels” companies exposed to Japan’s autonomous-driving and MaaS commercialisation cycle. The theme is gaining substance as driver shortages, deregulation and government subsidies push autonomous mobility from demonstration into deployment. Yuka argues the disciplined approach is to accumulate essential supply-chain names while speculative capital chases the large-cap theme. Aisan Technology stands out fundamentally, as does eSOL, while Fixstars and Tier IV remain watchlist names for a better entry point after recent strength.
SMRs: A better AI power bet than SpaceX
Utilities
After fifty years of stagnation, Kailash sees the nuclear industry as having a credible chance of revival through small modular reactors, supported by favourable policy and lower upfront capital requirements than legacy plants. While SMRs remain high risk, Kailash believes much of that risk is already reflected in valuations, unlike SpaceX, which carries similar or greater uncertainty but is priced as though commercial viability is assured. On that basis, SMRs may offer the better way to play rising AI-driven power demand. The valuation gap is stark: listed pure plays Oklo and NuScale have a combined market value of ~$9.2bn vs. ~$1.9trn for SpaceX. The key challenge for SMRs is now execution - proving Western projects can be delivered on budget and at scale.
Technology
BTN first highlighted VERX in Nov 24 and the shares have since fallen ~70% despite the company appearing well positioned to benefit from changes in tariffs and VAT regimes. The stock now trades at ~16x forward adjusted EPS, but they still see material earnings-quality concerns. While reported earnings continue to improve, there remains a sizeable gap between adjusted results and the underlying economics of the business. BTN's latest Red Flag Note highlights weak cash generation, the exclusion of recurring software costs that account for nearly half of adjusted EPS, declining contract liabilities and deferred commissions, and several smaller accounting benefits that have helped VERX sustain a pattern of beating adjusted EPS estimates by just 1 cent.
Stablecoins: Are incumbent banks already too late?
Financials
AI agents are already choosing stablecoins for machine-to-machine payments, with Circle’s USDC emerging as the dominating settlement. Automated systems buying compute and data executed 23m transfers in 30 days, up 64% in a week, with 99.3% settling through USDC. M2M commerce is selecting payment networks on speed, programmability and API compatibility rather than incumbent relationships. If that behaviour scales, deposit migration could erode the float supporting bank lending and pressure NII; Dallas Fed analysis suggests as much as $580bn of lending capacity could be at risk. With a bank-led digital dollar not expected until 2027, investors should consider which regional banks have deposit bases most exposed to float erosion.
Consumer Staples
John Zolidis sees DLTR’s Q2 as evidence that its multi-price strategy is working, with same-store traffic turning positive after three quarters of declines despite lapping +3.0% growth. Same-store sales rose 3.7%, revenue grew 7% and margins expanded (ex-tariff refunds), while SG&A also leveraged. Importantly, higher price points are not driving customers away and should support basket growth, while materially easier H2 comparisons provide a tailwind to traffic. John views the recent margin confusion around tariff refunds as temporary noise rather than a change in the core thesis. With 5% unit growth, aggressive buybacks and improved unit economics, he remains a buyer following the post-results sell-off.
Consumer Discretionary
The timeshare operator is struggling to attract younger new owners as demographics and holiday preferences shift. TNL’s response has been to drive growth by encouraging existing owners to upgrade to higher tiers, a strategy industry participants told OWS is unsustainable. At the same time, competition to win new customers and sell more “Experiences” could pressure margins. Credit quality is another concern: early-stage delinquencies are edging higher even among borrowers with FICO scores above 700, while loans with recent vintages have dominated write-offs. OWS sees a 2H26/2027 shortfall in new customers, revenue and EBITDA as the key catalyst, with higher loan-loss provisions a further risk to the growth story.
Communications
New Constructs remains firmly bearish despite the stock falling 35% YTD and ~80% since their original report. The core issue is that the fundamentals continue to move in the wrong direction relative to expectations embedded in the valuation. Daily active users are declining in SNAP’s key North American and European markets, while ARPU remains stagnant. At the same time, margins remain negative and cash burn substantial: SNAP has consumed $13.7bn of cumulative FCF (excluding acquisitions) since 2016, including $395m in 1H26. New Constructs argues the current valuation still assumes an implausibly large acceleration in users and monetisation and sees further downside, with their optimistic scenario valuing the shares at just $2.00 vs. $5.70 currently.
Contrarian Corner
Mill Street’s Contrarian Corner reports highlight stocks where analyst consensus recommendations diverge from the recent trend in consensus analyst earnings estimate revisions. Once they have identified the relevant stocks, Mill Street looks for names which screen well (buy ideas) or poorly (sell ideas) using their six-factor MAER ranking model. Top buy ideas drawn from the Russell 1000 universe currently include Arrow Electronics, Best Buy, Prudential, Reliance and SMCI. Top sells include Boston Scientific, Primoris Services, Somnigroup, TeraWulf and Walmart.
Special Sits Idea Forum
Idea diversity at MYST’s latest buyside event was striking, spanning Basic Materials, Industrials, Real Estate, Telecom, Transportation, and, of course, AI / power-related names. Stocks discussed include:
Air Canada (AC CN) - “Going private in plain sight” via buybacks + loyalty programme monetisation. TP C$60 (115% upside).
Chemours (CC) - “Misread” guidance cut masks TiO2 recovery + data centre cooling optionality. TP $30 (95% upside).
FTAI Aviation (FTAI) - Legacy lessor perception obscures MRO growth + data centre power opportunity. TP $550 (190% upside).
Genuine Parts (GPC) - Activist-led industrial distribution separation misvalued under auto parts coverage. TP $186 (35% upside).
Mosaic (MOS) - China phosphate exit + corn inflection creates structurally tighter supply setup. TP $35 (35% upside).
Greek Refineries: Higher for longer?
Energy
Greek refining fundamentals look set to remain exceptionally strong after Helleniq and Motor Oil delivered impressive Q2 results, with both benefiting from strong middle-distillate economics, higher volumes and export premia. July and August cracks have surged vs. Q2, with diesel at $85 (from $49), gasoline at $46 (from $21) and jet at $68 (from $52). With both refineries expecting H2 to be at least as good as H1, ResearchGreece raises their 2026-28 EBITDA forecasts and, given the stronger margin outlook, shifts their refining valuation methodology from multiples to DCF. Price targets rise sharply but remain below current share prices, supporting DOI (Do Not Own It) ratings amid uncertainty over where refining margins ultimately settle and are not prepared to chase a speculative trade at current levels.
The commodities secular bull market resumes
Chris Roberts believes that the broad commodity secular bull market is resuming after the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index near 17% correction in May/June found support around the rising 40-week WMA (see chart), with the 14-week RSI bottoming at Neutral 46. DJP US broke out of a three-year base in late 2025, and this second advancing phase targets an advance to either 80.00 or 140.00. A break above the May peak of 51.73 should signal an acceleration, making 80.00 too low a target. While precious metals take a break, Chris likes Spot Copper at USD6.59 as it breaks clear of a 19-year ceiling at USD4.00-5.00 with a minimum target of USD8.00-9.00, adding to long exposure this week. Chris also sees Crude Oil setting new all-time highs above USD240.00+, and is holding a small, actively traded long in Spot Brent. He sees grains in late base development, and is holding long positions in Soybeans and Sugar while monitoring Corn and Wheat.
China’s cycle concerns v the CNY
Paul Cavey warns that domestic monetary stabilisation rests on fragile foundations, as China's property market fails to find a firm floor and the decline in starts re-accelerates. With consumption weak, the risk of the PBC restarting monetary easing is rising, directly challenging market confidence in sustained CNY appreciation. Paul is sceptical of a dramatic policy pivot whilst industrial production growth near 5% keeps the annual GDP target in sight. However, as onshore yields drop, renewed easing would create serious headwinds for the currency. Beijing prefers mild appreciation and capital inflows to support monetary reflation, but cannot maintain stability if forced to loosen. While the Politburo gave no sign of fiscal relief for households or property inventories, policy shifts have become non-linear. For Paul, the market's confidence that CNY appreciation continues is entirely at odds with the worsening problems in China's cycle.
Communications
MDC Financial Research's Event-Driven Legal℠ service is monitoring the State Attorneys General Social Media Addiction Trial against Meta Platforms, Inc. (Case #22-03047), where a Jury Trial commenced with Opening Statements on August 18th, 2026, in California. The litigation centres on allegations by 29 State Attorneys General that Meta's social media platforms were designed to be addictive and causes harm to adolescents (among other claims). The Trial is ongoing and is expected to continue through early October 2026. MDC attended Opening Statements and they currently plan to attend at least a portion of this ongoing Trial. Institutional investors can contact MDC for timely insights, court coverage and risk assessment on this and other event-driven equity opportunities.
Industrials
Q2 results show fleet stabilisation is on track, with leasing and service margins reaching their highest level since AYV was created in 2023 and opex tracking ahead of guidance. Management highlighted lower financing costs and better service profitability, and sustaining a 600bps margin on earning assets could add ~10% to consensus net income estimates. AYV also announced a €700m capital distribution. The main weakness was an €8m used-car sales loss as EV residual values fell, although this was modest vs. Arval’s much larger miss and supports the view that AYV has been more conservative on residual values. Longer term, meaningful cost savings, share gains and capital returns underpin a €21 target (80% upside).
Consumer Discretionary
Candle Lake’s SEK695 mandatory offer sits below EVO's market price and has no minimum acceptance threshold, so tender participation should be limited. Candle Lake already controls 31.56% of the votes, partly because EVO's substantial share buybacks have reduced the denominator. Further repurchases could increase Kenneth Dart’s ownership without requiring additional purchases. The situation also has fundamental support: EVO trades at 8.7x NTM EBITDA and 11.4x earnings despite a 66% EBITDA margin, c.30% ROIC and more than €1bn of annual FCF. European Research therefore views EVO as a fundamental long with control optionality rather than a conventional merger-arbitrage trade.
Healthcare
BMY’s ZENBEXUS approval shifts the debate from whether the IMiD franchise can retain relevance to whether the market is underpricing a credible rebuild opportunity. The approved relapse indication creates a commercial floor, but the equity question is now earlier-line use, duration of treatment and whether ZENBEXUS can shift from a capped RRMM asset into a broader Revlimid-successor thesis. Foveal thinks the setup is less about label optics and more about whether the maintenance opportunity can justify a materially larger peak-sales construct than consensus currently reflects.
Technology
Aequitas takes a cautious view on Longsys’ planned ~$500m H-share listing. The memory-products supplier has benefited from the sharp rebound in memory pricing, with FY25 revenue up 31% and PAT margin recovering to 6.1%, while 1H26 revenue more than doubled and PAT surged. However, Aequitas questions the sustainability of this earnings strength: Longsys remains a small global player with just 1.2% market share, relies heavily on a concentrated supplier base and is effectively a price taker, with gross margin only 18% in FY25. Operating cash flow has remained negative and net debt reached ~$1.2bn, although the IPO could nearly halve this. Aequitas also notes that margins may come under renewed pressure as lower-cost inventory is exhausted and replacement wafers are purchased at higher prices.
Banks: China too cheap to ignore, avoid India
Financials
David Scott sees global banks as still offering substantial value, with China the standout deep-value opportunity. Chinese banks trade at distressed-looking valuations despite resilient loan growth, profitability and well-covered dividends; David argues they are “too cheap to ignore”, with buybacks also looking increasingly likely given the large discounts to book value. China Merchants Bank is his preferred name given superior fundamentals and a valuation now around peer levels. By contrast, he expects Indian banks such as HDFC and Kotak to continue underperforming as intense competition for deposits, staff and lending compresses margins and efficiency. He remains positive on Banorte (a cheap play on Mexico’s growth) and Lion Finance (which is up another 155% since he last recommended it), while highlighting Commercial International Bank as a new Egyptian idea.
Consumer Discretionary
HTHT’s Q2 beat-and-raise showed earnings can compound without waiting for a broad China lodging recovery. Domestic RevPAR remains soft, but network expansion, faster fee-based growth, an increasingly asset-light mix and tight cost control drove ~3ppts of Y/Y margin expansion, prompting 86Research to increase their FY27 revenue and EBITDA estimates. HWC’s expansion remains firmly on track, supported by healthy signings and an improving pipeline, while newer formats such as Hanting 4.0 are delivering stronger economics. Internationally, Europe remained resilient and HWI EBITDA rebounded sharply despite Middle East disruption and Asia mix pressure. 86Research sees margin expansion as structural, with earnings quality improving faster than RevPAR normalises. At ~8x FY27E EV/EBITDA, they see further rerating potential. TP $65/ADS (40% upside).
Technology
Near-term earnings weakness masks a significant expansion in design wins. Q1 operating profit swung to a ¥0.7bn loss, but roughly ¥10bn of automotive revenue was pushed into Q2 by supply-chain changes, while higher R&D and sampling costs reflect investment ahead of new programmes; full-year guidance was maintained. More importantly, the design-win backlog has risen to ~¥1.51trn, with management expecting around 60% to convert into revenue within 4 years. Non-recurring Engineering revenue rose 37% Y/Y, with 91% tied to 7nm-or-more-advanced processes, signalling growing exposure to higher-value applications including North American data centres and hyperscaler custom silicon. Yuka Marosek sees the post-results share-price fall as disproportionate, with the key risk being whether delayed revenue and new production ramps materialise as planned.
Gig economy sector update (UBER, LYFT, DASH, CART) with Gridwise CEO Ryan Green
Technology
Peter Daniel hosted Gridwise CEO & Founder Ryan Green to discuss the scale and evolution of the US gig economy. Gridwise analyses more than 700m trips from 1.5m workers across platforms including Uber, Lyft, DoorDash and Instacart, providing insight into driver supply, pricing, pay and unit economics. The US is the most mature gig market, with independent workers contributing $1.3trn annually. Around 73-76m Americans, or 36% of the workforce, participate in freelance or gig work, with that share projected to exceed 50% by 2027. Rideshare and delivery alone account for more than 8m drivers, while the market is highly saturated with low median net margins. Gig work remains largely supplemental: only 21% rely on it as their primary income source. A recording of the call is available on request.
Technology
Corto argues TENB's sharp rerating is getting ahead of the fundamentals. Shares are up 50% YTD and 120% since early April as investors have become more comfortable that generative and agentic AI will not displace the company, a view reinforced by management’s Hexa AI strategy and partnerships with Anthropic and OpenAI. Corto is less convinced, arguing agentic AI could still reshape vulnerability management and that TENB has yet to show a corresponding growth inflection. Most key revenue indicators including organic growth, H2 guidance, new customer revenue, enterprise additions, NDE, deferred revenue and RPO continue to point to deceleration. With the shares now pricing in a growth rebound, Corto expects softer H2 trends, estimate risk and multiple compression, leaving significant downside from current levels.
Technology
Hamed Khorsand thinks the sell-off in ATEN reflects investors focusing too heavily on Microsoft customer concentration and missing the upside from a deepening relationship. MSFT accounted for 38% of Q2 revenue, but Hamed argues the new agreement should reduce purchase lumpiness and could drive another step-up in quarterly sales, similar to the increase seen after MSFT expanded its use of ATEN products in 2025. He expects revenue growth to exceed ATEN’s historical targets, particularly in 2027, while a recovery in Japanese and European service-provider spending should broaden the revenue base. The group’s ability to generate FCF further enhances value creation as it puts excess capital towards share repurchases. TP $45 target (80% upside).
Materials
GMR sees HBM as one of the strongest ways to play US copper growth, with Arizona emerging as the core of its long-term optionality. Copper World is approaching a sanction decision in late 2026, while the recently acquired Cactus project adds a second large-scale development opportunity and potential synergies. GMR estimates HBM could account for 30-35% of new US copper production by 2035, while projects across its broader portfolio are expected to increase total copper production by ~140kt over the period. The balance sheet has strengthened, 2027 production guidance implies ~30% Y/Y growth at the midpoint, and HBM trades at ~0.9x spot P/NPV10, a discount to Canadian peers. In a market short of copper equities, HBM offers growth optionality at a reasonable price and GMR would be surprised if peers have not noticed.
Industrials
Paragon interviewed six former senior executives at BE who worked with Sridhar for 50+ years combined. Sources provided negative feedback, with his founder-driven intensity also seen as his central weakness. He sets frequently unrealistic goals, can micromanage and override functional experts, struggles with talent selection and delegation, and has produced significant executive turnover, with multiple sources describing weak accountability, inconsistent strategic discipline, limited self-awareness, and serious concerns around transparency and integrity. The group’s success reflects Sridhar’s technological conviction, fundraising ability and persistence, but his dependence on a small group of capable executives and directors to provide operating discipline leaves the organisation vulnerable to overcommitment, leadership churn and execution problems when his ambition runs ahead of the company’s capabilities.
Everyday essentials, extraordinary pressure
Consumer Staples
Scott Mushkin argues the squeeze on food-at-home is intensifying, with GLP-1 adoption reducing industry volumes just as Amazon and Walmart accelerate their push into everyday consumables. AMZN's essentials business already exceeds $150bn, and he estimates FY26 unit growth of ~25% and revenue growth of ~20%; alongside WMT and Costco gains, this could leave the rest of the market shrinking ~2%. Aggressive pricing and faster delivery should also pressure competitors’ margins, reinforcing Scott’s Sell ratings on Kroger and Dollar General. Pepsico, Campbell's and Constellation (all not covered) are where he is most concerned, but he views the industry as generally uninvestable. Conversely, AMZN’s consumables momentum increases his confidence in his long-term North America retail forecasts and wider industry consolidation over the next couple of years.
Consumer Discretionary
Hollister enters back-to-school with strong momentum, heavy social-media visibility and several fast-selling categories. Abercrombie has been weaker, with stale assortments weighing on the brand, but The Retail Tracker sees signs of improvement following merchandise changes and new design leadership; YPB looks very good as well. One notable watchpoint is Hollister inventory: stores were unusually empty in July, prompting questions over potential delivery issues, although The Retail Tracker says this may simply reflect summer product selling through faster than expected. Tougher second-half comparisons remain a headwind, particularly for Hollister, but the combination of sustained momentum there and improving product at Abercrombie leaves ANF well positioned for the remainder of the year.
Communications
The market is focusing too heavily on GOOGL’s ~$200bn capex bill and not enough on the long-term value of the infrastructure being built, according to Will Nutting. Google Cloud is already running at close to $100bn of annualised revenue, growing 82%, with a 35.6% operating margin and $514bn of contracted backlog. His analysis suggests Cloud could become a $600-700bn business by 2030 and $1.2-1.7trn business by 2035, supporting $400-700bn of operating profit, while the company as a whole could generate $600-900bn of annual earnings. Once the current construction phase slows, depreciation and maintenance capex should look very different from today’s growth capex, allowing it to throw off hundreds of billions in annual FCF. Will sees GOOGL evolving from a search company into a vertically integrated “intelligence utility”, with AI infrastructure ownership potentially becoming the next major investment trade.
TMT Idea Forum
While AI was a dominant theme at MYST’s latest buyside event, several participants deliberately avoided it, migrating towards media-related names, out-of-favour international companies and recent IPOs. The most interesting ideas included:
Disney (DIS) - stale narrative masks broad fundamental improvements + IP moat. TP $150 (40% upside).
Flex (FLEX) - CPI spin-off to unlock hidden hyperscaler growth. TP $250 (125% upside).
Motorola Solutions (MSI) - sleepy Street models ignoring transformational counter-drone acquisitions. TP $700 (45% upside).
SharonAI (SHAZ) - sweetheart Nvidia deal fuels unrecognised EBITDA upside + ASX listing catalyst. TP $200 (245% upside).
Spotify - significant margin upside from restructured label deals, new product features + ads. TP $1,206 (125% upside).
Industrials
AlphaValue raises their FY26 estimates on better H2 visibility, stronger automation penetration and an improving margin mix. The order backlog is up 23% Y/Y, while a greater contribution from smaller, higher-margin orders should offset the heavier weighting of lower-margin key-account projects seen in H1. FY27 sales and EBIT estimates rise 3%, with FY28 forecasts increased 5%. AlphaValue expects continued growth in warehouse automation to increasingly offset weakness in ITS, supported by long-term structural drivers including labour shortages, the continued expansion of e-commerce and the growing importance of reverse logistics. While competition from Asia, particularly Chinese players, remains a drag, AlphaValue believes the expanding secondary market for lithium-ion battery-powered trucks should remain supportive and become increasingly relevant over the coming years. TP €35 (45% upside).
Technology
The post-results sell-off reflects an expectations miss vs. Seagate’s exceptional print rather than any deterioration in fundamentals. WDC’s June-quarter exabyte shortfall was modest and largely tied to the move towards 40TB ePMR, while STX is benefiting from a richer HAMR mix and higher guided margins. Rosenblatt accepts the margin gap could widen before it narrows but still sees WDC exiting FY28 near 64% gross margin. Importantly, Nearline price/TB growth accelerated to 17% Y/Y and management effectively endorsed sustained high-teens pricing growth through FY27. Product transitions across 40TB ePMR, ultraSMR and 44TB HAMR remain the key catalyst, expected to reaccelerate exabyte growth towards the high-20% range in 2H27. TP $800, while Rosenblatt sees $375-400 as a “back-up-the-truck” level.
Copper: Price – Supply link is broken
David Radclyffe warns that the long-standing link between copper prices and lagged mine supply has broken, as greenfield project timelines stretch far beyond traditional lead times. Short-term production responses remain tightly constrained, as mines run near capacity and can only target richer ore or expand mill operations. Historically, David’s analysis shows global copper supply responded to price moves with an eight to ten-year lag. However, Anglo American data reveals project completion timelines from initial discovery have surged from seven years in the 1990s to 18 years today, with permitting and environmental studies inflating from four to 13 years. Extended scopes, including required desalination plants, pipelines, and tailing dams, further delay construction. David believes project timelines will keep lengthening across most host nations. With new mines taking 20 years to build, copper supply simply cannot respond to ten-year-old price signals.
Limited impact of US tariffs on wood producers
The series of new US tariff announcements include 50% tariffs on ~5% imports from Canada, a 25% tariff on Brazilian imports and 10–12.5% tariffs on virtually all trading partners. The new tariff suites apply to more categories, with the latest possible impact on Canadian exports appearing to be in paperboard and plywood. Although plywood will see some direct impacts (table), public companies in Canada have little exposure. US plywood producers should benefit from lower Brazilian uncoated woodfree imports, although the team expect incremental impact on the names in their coverage universe. Given the inflationary impact on freight/personal transportation from the Iran war, persistently high rates, and escalating domestic energy costs, the team are cautious on the housing market outlook and underlying consumer demand. They see limited benefit to US producers from these latest tariff machinations, with some producers benefiting from one category but hurt by another (e.g., Sylvamo Corp, Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc).
Australia: Breaking out down under
The iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA US, USD29.34) broke out from a 55-month Range/Rectangle in Jan this year. The Iran bombings saw a more than 10% sell-off, but Chris Roberts comments that the decline ended in the old resistance zone at USD25.50-27.43, and the ETF recovered to set new uptrend highs. The ETF has formed a potential 5-month ascending triangle, a breakout from which would target USD33.80 but more importantly it would confirm the breakout from the 55-month Rectangle which targets USD39.00+. Chris will look to go 75% long on a weekly close above USD31.00. The stop will be a daily close below USD27.40.
The Fed can create volatility, but should it?
Paul Krake contends that Kevin Warsh is right to elevate the bond market's role in monetary policy, yet warns that removing forward guidance restores suppressed volatility. Paul believes interest rates carry less economic impact than Kevin thinks: fixed-rate mortgages shield homeowners, cash-rich hyperscalers borrow regardless of coupon costs, and supply-side inflation sits beyond the funds rate. Facing the press conference problem, Paul outlines three choices for Chairman Warsh: continue holding press conferences while markets mine every answer, restrict them to policy change meetings, or eliminate them entirely in favour of written statements. With US inflation above target for five years, 30-year yields at 2007 highs, and record debt issuance, an American Liz Truss moment cannot be ruled out. When volatility inevitably produces a casualty, Warsh will face a choice: let markets impose discipline or intervene. The Fed can create volatility, but can it tolerate the consequences?
The AI efficiency trade: Look beyond LLMs
The Sustainable Market Strategies team predicts that specialised energy management companies, industrial automation leaders, and enterprise AI software firms are best positioned to capture durable revenue as AI optimises power usage across grids and heavy industry. They contend that the energy leverage from narrow, purpose-built AI models is orders of magnitude better than the energy paradox narrative surrounding large language models, and investors who conflate the two are misreading the opportunity. Grid and industrial process optimisation present clear mechanisms to extract value: grid tools yield 30-50% fault outage reductions and $10 billion in annual US virtual power plant savings, while edge-deployed industrial models cut plant energy bills by 5-15% with a 50:1 to 500:1 leverage ratio on consumed power. Large-cap infrastructure names provide defensible entries via hardware and integration moats, including Schneider Electric SE, GE Vernova Inc and Eaton Corp PLC.
Healthcare
AlphaValue argues Q2 results put to rest the execution risk that emerged after the Q1 miss, while the new German reimbursement framework reduces uncertainty around Helios. The key message is not simply the earnings beat, but the quality of the step-up. Kabi’s higher-growth businesses are now translating into structurally higher profitability, with Growth Vectors helping the division enter its 17-19% margin corridor as Biopharma scales and the biosimilar pipeline broadens. This reinforces AlphaValue’s confidence in the 2030 ambition to double Biopharma sales at c.20% margin. At Helios, German volumes have stabilised and the reimbursement framework supports the margin trajectory from 2027. With Kabi margins improving, Helios visibility strengthened and deleveraging improving financial flexibility, AlphaValue maintains their Buy recommendation. TP €62.7 (30% upside).
Energy
Interim results demonstrate the earnings power of SBM’s Turnkey franchise when major project milestones and asset sales coincide, while the Lease and Operate fleet continues to provide a stable foundation. The substantial backlog increase and guidance upgrade confirm that the company is converting its strong market position into tangible financial outcomes. SBM has a very strong track record when it comes to on-time and on-budget delivery of the current construction portfolio, which should continue to support the conversion of the tender pipeline opportunities into additional order wins. With net debt reduced and cash-flow visibility extended far into the future, the balance sheet and capital-return framework look solid. Overall, the results reinforce confidence in SBM’s ability to generate attractive returns through the next phase of the deepwater cycle.
Technology
JNK argues ADI’s acquisition of Empower and the broader move towards in-package voltage regulators are important, but unlikely to displace board-level power delivery for some time. The issue is scale: today’s rack-class AI accelerators draw so much power that multiple in-package regulators would need to be combined to support a single high-power socket. That keeps the practical solution at the board level for now, where VICR’s vertical power delivery approach remains well positioned through the current design cycle. The risk is that in-package power delivery becomes viable for high-power AI accelerators faster than expected, pulling share from board-level suppliers sooner. JNK sees that risk as limited for now, with customer activity still at the collaboration and development stage rather than committed accelerator sockets, and Broadcom indicating in-package alternatives remain more than a year or two away.
