Materials

Report by ResearchGreece

Hurricanes, lower volume, higher pricing and stronger margins. These are the main points coming out of US cement companies in their Q3 updates and all of them are sharing an upbeat outlook for 2025. ResearchGreece believes TITC’s soon-to-be-IPOed US business deserves the 9x-10x EBITDA 2025 multiple of its US cement peers. Valuing what is 55% of TITC's total EBITDA at 9.0x, results in zero value for the company's non-US operations. For 2024-2026 ResearchGreece forecasts EBITDA of €580m-€640m, net income of €295m-€343m, payout at 30%, capex at €250m and FCFE of €170m-€270m resulting in net debt of €160m in 2026 (vs. €483m in 2024). TP €47.6 (25% upside).

Materials

Report by ResearchGreece

Intends to IPO its US business by early 2025 - using an EV/EBITDA of 9x for the US business and applying 5x EBITDA on non-US operations, yields a targeted total EV at €3.7bn and a targeted equity value of €3.1bn or €40 per share (30% upside). ResearchGreece’s implied targeted 2024 EV/EBITDA of 6.5x and P/E of 10.8x are both below Holcim’s current 8.2x EBITDA and 13.8x EPS, which derives 39% of sales and 31% of EBITDA from the US (vs. Titan’s 58% of sales and 55% of EBITDA) and which also plans to list its North American business in the US (the shares are up c.25% since the announcement in Jan).