Utilities

Report by ResearchGreece

ResearchGreece sees Admie as unattractive despite strong Q2 results at IPTO, its 51%-owned grid operator. The concern is that IPTO’s business plan remains demanding: H1 capex is running below FY26 guidance, yet investment would need to rise sharply in 2027-29 to deliver the €6bn programme and expand the regulated asset base to €7bn by 2029 from €3.3bn in 2025. That execution burden should keep leverage elevated, with IPTO net debt/EBITDA expected to peak above 5x. At the same time, Admie’s dividend yield remains subpar and the valuation is not compelling, with IPTO trading around 10-11x EV/EBITDA across 2026-29 versus grid and transmission peers at roughly 8.2x 2029.

Utilities

Report by ResearchGreece

The Greek TSO (51% owned by ADMIE) reported strong Q2 results reflecting higher electricity demand and much higher interconnection revenues. Revenues/EBITDA/Net Income grew by +22%/+24%/+30% Y/Y. The strong set of Q2 numbers and growth rate were no different to Q1, but the 45%-60% valuation discount against EUR TSOs remains. The Greek TSO is implementing one of the biggest interconnection capex plans in Western Europe. Therefore, higher RAB and dividends flowing will eventually scatter investor concerns over the corporate structure and regulatory inefficiencies. TP €4.0 (65% upside).

Utilities

Report by ResearchGreece

ResearchGreece addresses the following dividend-yield-buffer questions: a) How likely is it that the RAE will approve a higher WACC for IPTO? b) If so, what about RAB evolution? c) What is the impact on the fair value of ADMIE? d) What should investors do with the stock? A +100bps higher WACC means IPTO is worth €1.97-2.46bn based on peer multiples applied on 2024-2025 EBITDA. Therefore, ADMIE's 51% stake is worth €920m-1.06bn in NPV 2023 terms against a M/Cap of €555m. ResearchGreece estimates ADMIE's dividend yield at 5.3%-6.6% in 2023-2025 and upgrades their stock rating to OI (OWN IT) with a TP of €4.0 (70% upside).